Iowa’s 1st Congressional District is seeing Democrat Christina Bohannan challenge Republican incumbent Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks for the third time in a row. But an unpopular foreign war, new campaign strategies and an independent candidate are making this year’s race a little bit different.
On a Saturday in September, Bohannan greeted volunteer canvassers gathered in Fairfield. The perennial Democratic candidate for the 1st Congressional District has done well here before.
“Fairfield and Jefferson County are willing to vote for the person over political party," she said. "In 2024 they voted for President Trump by a good margin. They also voted for me.”
The race for Iowa's 1st District has razor thin margins. The Cook Political Report originally ranked the race as a toss up. It’s now re-ranked as “lean Democrat.”
Bohannan only won three counties in 2024, but she lost by just 799 votes. If canvassing could increase her lead in Jefferson County by a few percentage points, that could be the difference she needs to win the whole thing.
“We know that every single vote counts," she said. "We talk about a field margin — getting out and talking to people, that’s how we bring in that last 2, 3%. So we think this is an absolutely critical part of this campaign. And it’s the part we love to do.”
Besides getting more steps in across the district, Bohannan is also shifting her message.
“The top issue she's talking about in 2026 is affordability, prices, tariffs," said Colin Case, an assistant professor of political science at the University of Iowa. "That was not actually prevalent or present at all in her discussion in 2024.”
Unpopular tariffs and concerns swirling around the war in Iran have changed incumbent Miller-Meeks’ strategy, too. She was one of seven Republicans who broke with their party and voted to limit President Donald Trump’s military actions in Iran. In an interview with WQPT, the local Quad Cities PBS station, Miller-Meeks sided with Iowa farmers’ concerns at the pump.
“We can't have a forever war, and we've got diesel prices and gasoline prices that are high, and we know that's impacting Iowans," Miller-Meeks said. "I feel number one, Congress needs to be addressed. Number two, we can't have a nuclear-armed Iran, but at the same point in time, we also can't have a forever war.”
Case said Miller-Meeks' break with the administration on the war is worth noting. Trump’s popularity used to be a boon to Republican candidates. Now, his disapproval rates are hurting them.
But Miller-Meeks says she’s been consistent all along.
“Well, actually, my mind has been very clear since this started," she told WQPT. "We were allowing Iran to skirt sanctions, to sell oil as below market prices to China of all places, and so I understand what the president is trying to do, but at the same point in time, I believe Congress has a role.”
If war and tariffs weren’t enough, this is the first time Miller-Meeks and Bohannan have dealt with a third candidate. Independent Michael Bridgford is seizing a moment of political exhaustion and two-party dread to fuel his campaign.
“We're seeing government not working," he said. "Both sides have been in control. Today, we've got Republicans in full control. Four years ago, we had Democrats in full control. It seems like every time the pendulum swings, it goes further, more extreme each time. We, our country faces a lot of really serious problems today, and we don't have enough people in Washington willing to work with both sides to solve problems and address them.”
Case at the University of Iowa said Bridgford’s presence could threaten the few percentage points that will probably decide the race’s outcome.
“He's running a pretty well-financed campaign for an independent candidate," Case said. "He's showing up with some level of polling support, and so again, given how close this Congressional District has been for you know the last three or four cycles, even a small subset of voters, you know, going to vote for him instead of the Democratic candidate could have an impact in the race.”
Early voting has started. Iowans will find out if an old rematch gets new results this November.
