The USDA’s September data indicates that the amount of corn harvested this year in the U.S. could hit an all-time high. The boost is largely due to more acres planted this year, rather than yields.
“One of the things I’m watching is … some disease pressure west of the Mississippi River, especially southern rust,” said Chad Hart, an Iowa State University Extension Economist, in his Ag Market Outlook.
Drought conditions east of the Mississippi River could impact corn yields later in the season, he added.
The USDA’s report in October will reveal how much disease and drought affect U.S. corn production.
As for trade, Hart said corn exports are running at a record pace, despite the tariff turmoil.
The top importers are countries that have long-standing trade deals with the U.S., like Mexico, or new trade frameworks that help protect U.S. agricultural products from tariffs.
The outlook for soybeans is more dire and uncertain.
The latest USDA data suggests higher than expected yields this fall, but the crop's destination remains a big question mark.
“Our soybean export sales are off nearly 34% compared to last year at this time,” Hart said.
The gap is China, which has stopped all official purchases of U.S. soybeans since February in retaliation against U.S. tariffs.
“We do see some growth in some other markets, though. Mexico, Taiwan [are] up. It’s good to see the European Union up, as well," Hart said. "But the idea is with China sitting on the sidelines at least right now officially here, we have seen a fairly large drop in early sales."
Both soybean and corn prices remain below production costs.
“It’s really death by a thousand cuts for our farmers right now, which is they’re spending more for their inputs, for land, for equipment, for seed, for everything, for labor, for fuel,” said Iowa Sec. of Agriculture Mike Naig during a press event in Des Moines.
Efforts to drive down input costs and expand markets will help, Naig said. This includes year-round access to E-15 and developing a domestic sustainable aviation fuel industry, along with “offense on trade.”
Naig recently returned from a trade mission to India with Gov. Kim Reynolds and business leaders. He said he’s in communication with the Trump administration about the needs of Iowa farmers.
“What we want to see are those short-term biofuels wins and also to really move rapidly to secure those trade agreements with some key trading partners,” Naig said.
