On a hot, humid morning in early September, there was a sea of cardinal and gold in the parking lot outside Jack Trice Stadium in Ames as Iowa State fans tailgated before the season opening football game against Southeast Missouri State University.
Among the fans was Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Josh Turek, going from tent to tent, talking to voters. A woman in one tent offered him a cyclone-themed beer and a sandwich, carrots and tomatoes.
“This is the single healthiest tailgate I've ever seen,” Turek said.
For the next few minutes, Turek, a former Paralympian and state lawmaker who has spina bifida and uses a wheelchair, chatted with the group about basketball before launching into his political platform.
He said he wants to tackle corruption and increase transparency in campaign finance.
“What I'd like to see is overturning Citizens United. I'd love to be able to get the dark money out of politics. I'd like to pass a bill called the DISCLOSE Act,” he said.
One of the people listening to Turek was Beth Spenler, a retired special education teacher from Williamsburg who’s concerned about affordability.
“You get up every morning and ... you watch the Today show and you're like, what next?” she said. “You know, we have a war we can't win. It's driving the price of oil up. I don't know how people are going to survive if we don't change some things.”
Spenler, a lifelong Democrat, said she likes Turek’s message and plans to vote for him.
“I think that he sounds sensible. I think that he values a lot of things we do. I think that he's an Iowan,” she said.
An increasingly competitive race
In recent years, Iowa has shifted from a purple state to more red. All six of the state’s congressional representatives have been Republicans since 2023. The state voted for President Donald Trump three times.
But the race to fill Sen. Joni Ernst's open U.S. Senate seat has become increasingly competitive.
Turek is facing Republican U.S. Rep. Ashley Hinson and Libertarian Thomas Laehn in a race that the nonpartisan Cook Political Report recently moved from "lean Republican" to a "toss up." A recent poll by Emerson College put support for Hinson at 50% and Turek at 45%, which is within the margin of error. Libertarian Thomas Laehn received 1%.
Iowa Democrats think this could be their opportunity to win back a Senate seat for the first time in more than a decade, and it could be one of the four Senate seats they need to flip in order to gain control of the chamber.
Donna Hoffman, a political scientist at the University of Northern Iowa, said she’s always thought of this race as competitive. Iowa has a large number of active no party voters — more than active registered Democrats — and how they vote will likely come down to how they're feeling in the weeks before the election, she said.
“No party voters tend to pay less attention to politics until it starts to happen, and so they can be swayed in that sense by more conditions on the ground than just sheer blind partisanship,” Hoffman said.
"Hinson's race to lose"
But Hinson still holds the advantage when it comes to voter registration. Active registered Republicans in Iowa outnumber Democrats by nearly 183,000, as of this month.
Hinson has a strong resume as a former TV journalist and state legislator who flipped her U.S. congressional seat in 2020.
“This is Hinson's race to lose, but that is certainly within striking distance for Josh Turek,” said Peter Hanson, a political scientist at Grinnell College.
Hinson's vulnerability may be her close alliance with the president, who is facing the lowest approval ratings of his second term.
“In order to win a general election, she's got to reach out to voters who have been on the fence, particularly independents, who have really soured on the president, and so making that kind of pivot is pretty difficult,” Hanson said.
Both Hinson and Turek have been leaning into bipartisan messaging to try to sway the state's uncommitted voters this November, he said.
During a BBQ fundraiser in Clive in late August, Hinson told supporters she has worked with leaders from both parties in Washington, D.C.
“I have worked with President Trump and with President Biden to deliver for Iowa because, frankly, I've heard from all of you that's what you expect,” she said. “Heck, even when Nancy Pelosi was the speaker, we brought home a lot for Iowa, and so you know that means I can work with anybody.”
Annette Goater was in attendance at the fundraiser with her husband, Mike. Goater is a retired public school teacher from Cedar Rapids, who is concerned about education and immigration. She's optimistic Republicans will do well this election and likes Trump — and Hinson.
“I like that she speaks up when she needs to — speaks up about issues that we're concerned about,” Goater said.
