The Iowa Democratic Party and the Republican Party of Iowa both gained voters over the past month, while the number of voters with no party affiliation dropped significantly.
According to data from the Iowa Secretary of State’s Office, the Democratic Party gained more than 27,000 registered voters from June to July, bringing the total number of active Democratic voters in Iowa to 527,675. Despite Democratic gains, Republicans still hold a strong statewide advantage in voter registration, with 711,587 active voters, gaining more than 17,000 registered voters over the past month.
The largest change in voter registration occurred among voters affiliated with no party, as the number of registered independent voters decreased by more than 32,000. As of July 1, there are 555,309 active independent voters in Iowa.
“I think part of what’s going on is that people changed their registration to reflect a party preference so they could vote in the party primary,” said Karen Kedrowski, an Iowa State University political science professor and director of the Carrie Chapman Catt Center for Women and Politics. “These are not really new voters. They’re probably independents who lean Democratic or Republican and changed their party registration to be able to vote in the primary.”
Kedrowski said that in recent years, the number of registered Republican voters have remained constant, the number of independent voters has gone up and the number of registered Democrats has gone down. She said the increase in Democratic registrations appears consistent with national trends, which Kedrowski said reflect heightened motivation among Democratic and left-leaning voters opposed to President Donald Trump’s policies.
“There’s just a lot more excitement about participating in the election on the part of Democratic voters,” Kedrowski said. “They’re highly mobilized because they’re largely unhappy with what’s happening with the administration.”
Kedrowski said that it's extremely difficult to predict election results based on monthly data trends, but the excitement among Democrats could lead to the party making gains in Iowa, with the state returning to its “purple” roots, meaning a state that votes for both Republicans and Democrats closely.
“It’s definitely worrisome for Republicans because it shows there’s going to be momentum for the Democrats,” Kedrowski said. “Instead of seeing this as the Democrats becoming ascendant in Iowa, it might be more Iowa returning to being a swing state.”
Kedrowski cautioned that monthly voter registration alone does not predict election outcomes.
The voter registration figures reflect only “active” voters. According to Iowa Code 48a, voters who do not participate in one or two consecutive general elections will be labeled as “inactive,” but can still participate. If a voter misses three general elections, their voting status will be “canceled,” and the person would have to reregister.
