No one knows what exactly will happen in the 2024 election. More than 70 million votes have been cast early, and more than double that are likely left to be cast and counted. If the states are as close as expected, a winner might not be declared for days. In 2020, the Associated Press, whom NPR follows for calls, didn’t make its call until the Saturday after Election Day.
In that void before a race call, Trump will likely declare victory and cry fraud. He’s essentially done that for four years, and it’s what he’s been setting the stage for in the closing days of the campaign.
The uncertainty reflects a consequential election, not just for the president, but also for who controls Congress.
Republicans are favored to win the Senate, while the House is up for grabs
A president without full control of Washington’s political levers has almost no chance of passing major legislation, so the outcomes of the White House, Senate and House are all pivotal.
Democrats are facing one of the worst Senate maps for a party in modern political history. Republicans are expected to win control of the chamber. They need to win just two seats if they lose the White House, and only one if Trump wins (because a vice president would break ties). Republicans are already favored to flip two seats — in West Virginia and Montana, according to the Cook Political Report.
There are half a dozen more competitive seats that could mirror how the presidential election goes in those states, including Ohio, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Nevada. Democrats are hoping to make Texas and Florida competitive, but those are reaches.
How many Senate seats Republicans pick up could be critical to how long Democrats are in the minority — and if they have a shot at winning back the chamber two years from now.
There are fewer competitive House seats this year than almost ever before because of redistricting and members of Congress wanting to insulate themselves from difficult and expensive races, but Democrats’ chances of retaking the House have improved in the past month, according to forecasters like Inside Elections.
For control, Democrats need a net gain of four seats. Inside Elections sees a possible range of Democrats winning a net of nine seats to a Republican net pick up of one. So Democrats have a slight advantage for the first time this cycle.
