A MARTÍNEZ, HOST:
Yeah. The price of crude is above a hundred dollars a barrel after more attacks between the U.S. and Iran and a separate war that's drawn Houthi attacks on Saudi oil. And with no end in sight for the wars, a new reality is taking hold in the Gulf. The very U.S. bases meant to protect Arab allies are one reason why these countries are being attacked by Iran, which says these U.S. bases are being used to attack it. Here's NPR's Aya Batrawy in Dubai.
AYA BATRAWY, BYLINE: Iran's Revolutionary Guard wasted no time. Within hours of the U.S. and Israel launching war on Iran on February 28, Iran was firing back.
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BATRAWY: In a video widely circulated online that first day of the war, a huge plume of gray smoke rises into the sky.
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UNIDENTIFIED PERSON #1: (Non-English language spoken).
BATRAWY: This is the moment the operations hub of the U.S. Navy's Fifth Fleet in Bahrain is struck by an Iranian missile. Iran's attacks on the Fifth Fleet prompted a rapid drawdown of U.S. personnel, from 8,000 to less than a hundred there today. During a recent livestream, chief of naval operations Daryl Caudle was asked by a sailor when they'd be able to return to Bahrain to get their personal belongings. His answer was blunt.
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DARYL CAUDLE: We're not getting back in there anytime soon. I just want to be completely honest with that.
BATRAWY: Iran has fired thousands of drones and missiles throughout the war. Their targets have included U.S. embassies, hotels, Amazon data centers, oil and gas sites, and bases across the Gulf. In this video message from March, a spokesperson for Iran's top military command lists some of those targeted bases.
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UNIDENTIFIED SPOKESPERSON: (Non-English language spoken).
BATRAWY: He says those attacks on bases stretching from the United Arab Emirates to Kuwait, Bahrain and Jordan were carried out by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran, which continues to target bases in the region. The scale of damage is unclear.
MACKENZIE EAGLEN: I don't think the Pentagon is fully grappling with it, in part because they don't want to talk about the level of destruction because it's - even in the last two weeks, it keeps growing. The list is just getting longer.
BATRAWY: That's Mackenzie Eaglen, a senior fellow on defense strategy at the American Enterprise Institute and co-chair of the National Commission on the Future of the Navy. Two months into the war, she estimated that damage to U.S. bases had reached $5 billion. She now says that number is likely three times that.
EAGLEN: How weakened is America's deterrent, where we - clearly, Iran wasn't deterred at all, and they've hit at least - gosh, is it 12 countries? Fifteen now? That's frightening to me, you know, the loss of conventional deterrence, American conventional deterrence in the Gulf.
BATRAWY: Gulf Arab allies are also joining the discussion. Senior Qatari official Majed al-Ansari said this at a forum in the United Arab Emirates.
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MAJED AL-ANSARI: Assuming the region was operating under a regime of security architecture that has created the security that we have enjoyed for so many years. But the reality of the situation is security architecture was based on deterrence, and the deterrence that was used was always very fragile.
BATRAWY: Qatar was hosting the largest number of U.S. troops in the region, but Iran was still able to attack its gas facilities. Even so, U.S. defense systems have intercepted most Iranian missiles, and the U.S. is still the most important security partner for Arab states, even as they expand their defense ties with other countries. Bilal Saab, a former Pentagon adviser who is now a senior managing director at Trends Consultancy, says there's no replacing the U.S. in terms of defense, but the era of sprawling bases could be over.
BILAL SAAB: All of a sudden, there are now magnets for attacks. And so trimming the posture, at least in terms of soldiers - so manpower - there's definitely a case for that. I would say at least 35- to 40%.
BATRAWY: And analysts say whether the U.S. moves to a smaller footprint in the region is something Gulf Arab states are looking to Washington to decide.
Aya Batrawy, NPR News, Dubai. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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