That's a wrap on today's post-caucus live blog.

But you can find plenty more politics coverage every day on NPR.org, the NPR app on your local NPR station (click here for more). Plus, subscribe to The NPR Politics Podcast and NPR Politics Newsletter.

See you next week for New Hampshire!

Sergio Flores

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AFP via Getty Images

Two Republican candidates have dropped out of the primary since the Iowa caucus.

Entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy suspended his campaign late Monday night after finishing in fourth place. Former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson announced late Tuesday morning that he would quit the race, after placing sixth.

Who came in fifth? A little-known Texas businessman and pastor named Ryan Binkley, who's still in the race.

Binkley garnered 774 votes, amounting to 0.7% (a notch higher than Hutchinson's 0.2%). Chris Christie, who dropped out last week, got less than 0.1%.

While there's no official ballot for the Iowa Republican caucus (and voters can vote for any candidate), the state GOP was tracking votes for all of the above.

Binkley is the president and CEO of Generational Group (an investment bank and business advisory) as well as the co-founder and lead pastor of a church, both of which are located in Richardson, Texas.

He declared his candidacy in April 2023, with a solutions-focused campaign bent on restoring Americans' faith in God and each other. Top priorities listed on his campaign website include securing the border, rescuing the economy, transforming health care, revitalizing urban America and restoring unity.

Binkley, 56, became the first Republican candidate to visit all of Iowa's 99 counties in early November (DeSantis accomplished the same feat in December).

But he did not qualify for any of the televised GOP debates or gain any traction in the polls. Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom Iowa Polls put him at 0% in August, October and December, and 1% in January.

Binkley told supporters on Monday night that he would continue to the primaries in New Hampshire and South Carolina.

And he quoted Elton John, who became just the 19th person to achieve EGOT status at the Emmy Awards that same night: “I’m still standing."

Jim Watson

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AFP via Getty Images

Karoline Leavitt of New Hampshire became just the second Gen Z candidate — and first Republican — to win a House primary in 2022.Leavitt, a former Trump press staffer who amplified his false claims of a stolen 2020 election, ended up losing in the general election.

Now a national spokesperson for Trump's political action committee, Leavitt doesn't believe the former president is facing a similar fate. She pointed to his landslide victory in Iowa as a sign of his momentum — and told Morning Edition's Steve Inskeep that Trump is already focusing on the general election matchup against President Joe Biden.

"It's time for us to turn the page away from this Republican primary and move forward to focus on our ultimate opponent, which is Joe Biden and the Democrats," she said.

She said Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis don't have a practical pathway to the nomination, and said it is "unfortunate" that they didn't back out, as fourth-place finisher Vivek Ramaswamy did. She called on them to "stop wasting millions of dollars, so we can take this fight to the Democrats."

NPR's Franco Ordoñez, who covers the presidential campaign, says the Trump camp wants big wins in Iowa and New Hampshire to stop the momentum of its rivals — but faces an uphill battle in New Hampshire, where there are more independent voters (which is not where Trump tends to perform best).

Leavitt says Trump will be holding campaign events in New Hampshire "pretty much every single night" before the primary on Tuesday.

Trump has a busy schedule this week for other reasons, as another civil defamation trial against him by writer E. Jean Carroll is being held in New York. Leavitt confirmed Trump plans to be there, and made the case for his ability to balance those commitments.

"There is no one that has more tenacity and a greater work ethic than President Trump," she said. "He arrived last night in New York at 3:30 in the morning, he's going to the courthouse this morning, and then he's on his way back to New Hampshire to give a raucous rally speech in front of a very large crowd."

Trump, who is facing 91 criminal charges across four different cases, is expected to face a busy year of court proceedings. Leavitt accused Democrats of election interference by scheduling those trials during the presidential campaign cycle — though, as Inskeep points out, those judges and officials have not explicitly discussed the reasons behind those decisions.

"But it's not going to matter because people see right through it," Leavitt added. "They believe in the president, and they want their lives to return to what they felt like under his leadership."

Leavitt went on to argue that most Americans have concerns about election integrity, and repeated Trump's calls for paper ballots and same-day voting. She said voters should be able to learn election results the night they cast them.

When asked if that would be feasible with paper ballots, Leavitt responded that "we did it for hundreds of years before voting machines."

"America has done it for 200-plus years, actually, as a matter of fact, and many nations around this world do that as well and you hear their results in the exact same night," Leavitt said.

Inskeep added, "When it's not close, that is."

Ordoñez points out that the Republican Party expressed more openness to mail-in voting after the 2020 election, feeling that Democrats had gotten an advantage from early voting (dozens of election officials and court cases across the country have disproven Trump's claim of fraud).

But in recent months, he says, Trump has been pushing for a return to paper ballots and a single day of voting.

Independent voters — those who are not registered Democrats or Republicans — did not vote in yesterday's Iowa caucus, but they may help decide the 2024 election.

Independent voters are the fastest-growing political identity. A 2023 Gallup poll showed that 40% of adults consider themselves politically independent, while only 27% of adults consider themselves either a Democrat or a Republican.

“We’re the ones who are in it for democracy,” Lisa D.T. Rice, an independent political strategist told NPR’s Morning Edition.

Rice told NPR’s Michel Martin that independent voters are not necessarily interested in a third-party candidate, but rather, a candidate that represents a broader swath of the electorate.

“If one of the parties offers us something to vote for, we’ll be the ones that make the difference in the 2024 election,” Rice said.

Listen to the full story here

TLDR: Yes, there is good polling, but these voters are new here, and there will be many more polls to come.

When asked about young voters' decreasing support for President Biden in an interview with NPR’s Steve Inskeep on Morning Edition, Jack Lobel, national press secretary for the youth-run organization Voters of Tomorrow, argued that pollsters haven't been able to measure Gen Z's political attitudes yet accurately.

"A lot of these polls are conducted by the phone, and a lot of us don't really pick up the phone," Lobel said.

To back up for a second: just 9% of Gen Z and younger millennials (voters under 29) turned out in the Iowa caucuses last night, according to entrance polling.

And while that minimal showing may be chalked up to several factors, questions remain over the larger political attitudes of Gen Z and younger millennials right now.

Notably, young voters have overwhelmingly turned out and supported Democratic candidates over the past few election cycles.

And while phone calls may be slightly passé to young people (and everyone), there's been noticeable dissatisfaction among this age group with President Biden in recent months — particularly over his handling of the Israel-Hamas war.

And this recent polling (notably from the New York Times/Siena College Poll in December) shows a much closer match-up between Biden and former President Trump — especially when third-party candidates are in the mix, according to the recent biannual Harvard Youth Poll.

Plus — while the December poll from The New York Times says surveys were conducted via phone, many surveys are also conducted online — notably, the Harvard Youth Poll — which focuses on young voters under 30.

But again — 2024 marks just the third presidential election in which Gen Z can take part. There will be many more polls.

Frazer Harrison

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Getty Images

Last night wasn't just a big night for politics — it was also the Emmy Awards.

There wasn't too much overlap between the two. But one person did opine on the Iowa results: John Oliver, who has not shied away from criticizing Trump over the years on his late-night, satirical news show.

Last Week Tonight With John Oliver won Emmys last night for outstanding scripted variety series and outstanding writing for a variety series. Oliver, fresh off his win, was celebrating backstage when an ET reporter informed him of the other big victory of the night (Trump's).

"Thanks very much for taking this magical moment and reminding me that joy is ephemeral, pain is forever. I'm glad I heard it first on ET," Oliver said.

"Congratulations to Donald. This is gonna be a fun year," he said into the camera, then jokingly threw his mic down on the table.

For more Emmys coverage, see the complete list of winners and red carpet looks.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis spent a lot of time in Iowa — in fact, he saw basically all of it by campaigning in all 99 counties.

"We’ve got our ticket punched out of Iowa," DeSantis told a crowd of supporters in the state last night.

DeSantis, who made his campaign about fighting for anti-"woke" policies and against diversity, equity and inclusion initiatives, has been popular among conservatives for the past two years, but some of that appeal seems to be waning.

Back in Florida, DeSantis hasn't proposed any new policies for the legislative session that started this month. Florida Republicans have split loyalties when it comes to DeSantis: high-profile Republicans in the state like Byron Donalds have clashed with the presidential candidate, and one congressman even changed his previous endorsement of DeSantis to Donald Trump.

Lynn Hatter, news director at member station WFSU in Tallahassee, Fla., says that while DeSantis' agenda may have resonated with voters in Iowa, his policies and personality may not resonate in New Hampshire next week, where there is a higher percentage of moderate Republicans and independent voters.

"Some people say he just doesn't present very well," Hatter told NPR's Michel Martin.

The similarities between DeSantis and Trump may also prove difficult for the governor going into next week’s caucus. DeSantis’ campaign is trying to appeal to Trump’s base, but that strategy doesn’t seem to be working for him.

"The former president's supporters just seem to like their guy better," Hatter said on Morning Edition. 

Listen to the full story here.

Chip Somodevilla

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Getty Images

Former President Donald Trump set a record in last night's Iowa caucus: He won by a 30% margin, making it the largest victory in the caucus’ history — surpassing the record set by 1988 Republican presidential candidate Bob Dole.

Gary Leffler, an Iowa precinct captain for Trump, told Morning Edition that this caucus felt different from ones in the past.

“The people are really just more energized than I’ve ever seen them. and I was there in ‘16, and '20, and they are more organized, they’re more dedicated, they’re more enthused.”

Supporters of other candidates also expressed enthusiasm. Morning Edition spoke to voters like Elliott Adkins, who was excited about candidate Niki Haley’s economic and border policies.

“I think she makes a lot of sense with the issues that are important to me,” Adkins said.

While the former U.N. ambassador finished third in the Iowa caucus, people were still enthusiastic about her chance of winning the primary.

“I got nothing against any of the other candidates in the race, but none of our policies matter if we don’t win the general election. I think she’s our best shot at doing that,” said Austin Harris, an Iowa state lawmaker and former Trump supporter.

Listen to the full story here.

Kevin Dietsch

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Getty Images

The days leading up to last night's caucuses were filled with snowstorms, extreme wind chill, freezing temperatures — and a lot of worry about what the weather would mean for turnout.

The Iowa caucuses, which take place in person, have traditionally not attracted many participants (which is one reason why many states opt for more accessible primaries).

The best-attended GOP caucus was in 2016, the last time Trump was on a contested primary ballot. A record 186,000 voters participated — but even that only amounted to some 25% of registered Iowa Republicans.

Turnout was much lower this time around. Only about 110,000 Republicans participated (as of 1:30 a.m. ET, with 99% of results in). That represents less than 15% of the total number of registered Republicans in the state.

Here's how that turnout number compares to previous contested GOP caucuses:

• 2016: 186,743
• 2012: 121,503
• 2008: 118,411
• 2000: 86,440
• 1996: 96,451
• 1988: 108,806
• 1980: 106,051

It's hard to say how much yesterday's record cold played a role in keeping would-be voters home.
Iowa Public Radio's Sheila Brummer says that some people may have been eager to get out of the house after being stuck at home in snowstorms all week.

NPR's Don Gonyea says while the cold weather may have dampened turnout, there's no reason to think that a greater turnout would have changed the results in any meaningful way.

Regardless, last night's caucus was decided by a relatively small number of key voters — especially when you consider how much money GOP candidates spent on TV ads in Iowa.

NPR's Domenico Montanaro calculated that it comes out to $1,124 per person who showed up to vote.

Iowa Democrats also headed into their caucus last night, but they conducted other party business instead of voting for president.

They will cast their votes by mail this year for the first time ever, fresh off the debacle that was the 2020 caucus (when a glitchy app delayed results for days).

They've changed their process in order to keep their first-in-the-nation status while also complying with the Democratic National Committee's (controversial) new calendar, which makes South Carolina the first nominating contest, on Feb. 3.

Democrats have long called to shake up the primary calendar, to elevate states that they say are more reflective of the party's diversity.

Iowa Democrats are voting by mail now, with the results expected on March 5, or Super Tuesday.

More than a dozen other states and territories will also finish voting that day: Alabama, Alaska (GOP only), Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, Virginia. See more key election dates here.

Andrew Harnik

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AP

Former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson is dropping out of the presidential race.

"Today, I am suspending my campaign for President and driving back to Arkansas," he said in a statement on Tuesday.

"My message of being a principled Republican with experience and telling the truth about the current front runner did not sell in Iowa," he added.

The announcement comes after Hutchinson secured under 200 votes in the Iowa caucuses on Monday, just 0.2% of the vote.

The former Arkansas governor was never able to break through in the primary field, failing to qualify for the last three Republican debates due to insufficient polling and fundraising numbers.

Hutchinson has long been a public opponent of former President Trump — and entered the race as a moderate option for conservative voters.

Chip Somodevilla

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Getty Images

A year ago, Donald Trump was considered the Republican Party's favorite candidate for president, but it wasn’t clear that he would dominate the way he did in Iowa last night.

Frank Luntz, a pollster who has worked with Newt Gingrich, attended eight caucuses last night. He told Morning Edition that last night, Trump voters were decided and passionate in their resolve for the former president.

"Trump voters are voting for him not despite what's going on in the outside world, but because of it," Luntz told NPR’s Steve Inskeep.

While the voters he talked to last night were clear that the former president’s indictments and court appearances were not a problem for them, Luntz says Trump might have a harder time convincing the broader electorate that his legal troubles aren't a concern.

"The very thing that makes him so popular among Republicans turns off Democrats and a majority of independents," he said.

And that is important to keep in mind as voters look towards the general election later in the year.

"In the end, just getting your base vote doesn't elect you," Luntz said.

Both President Biden and Donald Trump have a hard road ahead when it comes to convincing voters that they are the right candidate for the job, according to Luntz.

"We have two flawed likely nominees and an electorate who really doesn’t want a rerun of 2020," Luntz said.

Listen to the full story here.

Scott Eisen

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Getty Images

The Iowa caucuses mark the official start of election season — and it will be in full swing before we know it.

The New Hampshire primary (for both Republicans and Democrats) is slated for Tuesday, Jan. 23.

February's nominating contests follow in short order:

• Feb. 3: South Carolina Democratic primary.
• Feb. 6: Nevada primary.
• Feb. 8: Republican caucuses of Nevada GOP and U.S. Virgin Islands.
• Feb. 24: South Carolina Republican primary.
• Feb. 27: Michigan primary.

Then comes March, with more than a dozen states holding contests on the fifth, aka Super Tuesday:

• March 2: Idaho, Missouri Republican caucuses.
• March 3: Washington, D.C. Republican primary.
• March 4: North Dakota Republican caucus.
• March 5: Contests in Alabama, Alaska (GOP only), Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, Virginia.
• March 12: Georgia, Mississippi, Washington primaries, the Hawaii Republican caucus and Democratic primaries for the Northern Mariana Islands and Democrats Abroad
• March 15: Northern Mariana Islands Republican caucus.
• March 19: Arizona, Florida, Illinois, Kansas, Ohio primaries.
• March 23: Louisiana primary, and Missouri Democratic primary.
• March 30: North Dakota Democratic primary.

Two-thirds of states and territories will have voted for their choice of nominee by the end of March — which is also when former President Trump's trials could be getting underway.

Primaries continue through June. Republicans will hold their national convention in Milwaukee in July, and Democrats will hold theirs in Chicago in August.

Get the full list of dates here.

Christian Monterrosa/AFP, Chip Somodevilla, Kamil Krzacynski/AFP and Win McNamee/Getty Images

The Republican primary field is even smaller heading into New Hampshire, after entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy dropped out last night.

That leaves just Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley and Asa Hutchinson.

Hutchinson, the former governor of Arkansas, finished last night in sixth place, with 0.2% of the vote. He came in behind Texas pastor and businessman Ryan Binkley, a little-known candidate who hasn't qualified for any of the debates so far.

Hutchinson told reporters on Monday night that his team will reassess his campaign given the caucus results — but still plans to head to New Hampshire for next week's primary.

"I've got my flight booked there," he said. "But we’re going to reevaluate after this evening. We'll see where we finally end up and if we've got the strength to carry on this campaign beyond Iowa."

Get more details at NPR's candidate tracker.

Carolyn Kaster

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AP

Iowa Public Radio's Sheila Brummer spent caucus night at a precinct in Sioux City. She shared her observations with Morning Edition's Steve Inskeep today.

"What they do is they get a piece of paper, they write down the candidate's name, and then a precinct chair counts who got what," she explains of the process. "And then they read it over a loudspeaker to everybody, so everyone knows before they leave how the precincts turned out."

Outside, the temperature was six below. Brummer said she expected the weather to affect turnout, but saw the opposite — her site, at Western Iowa Tech Community College, actually saw 25% more people show up.

"It was a week of nasty weather: a couple of snowstorms, a blizzard, the coldest air in a long time, and I think maybe people just wanted to get out of the house," she explains.

After talking to voters, Brummer says many wanted to get out to make sure their candidate was the one to be on the general election ballot in November.

Trump supporters say he's been wrongly accused of the 91 criminal charges against him, she says, while supporters of DeSantis and Haley say the country needs someone without that baggage.

Listen to their full conversation here.

Joe Raedle

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Getty Images

Former New Hampshire Gov. John Sununu used to joke that "Iowa picks corn, New Hampshire picks presidents."

There is something to that last part: The winner of the New Hampshire primary has become the Republican presidential nominee in the last three open primaries and six of the eight primaries since 1976.

In the same period, only three of the Iowa caucus winners went on to become the presidential nominee: George W. Bush in 2000, Bob Dole in 1996 and Gerald Ford in 1976.

A recent ABC News analysis found that in the half-century since the start of the modern primary system, the presidential candidates who won Iowa's caucuses failed to win the presidency 16 times, not including uncontested races.

On the other side of the coin, it's entirely possible to lose the Iowa caucus but still become the nominee and ultimately win the presidency.

President Biden broke precedent, losing both Iowa and New Hampshire on his way to the White House. And the last three eventual GOP nominees all lost the Iowa caucuses.

The real currency of the Iowa caucuses is momentum. How candidates perform, especially compared to expectations, can determine who still sees a viable path to the nomination.

Politicos like to say there are "only three tickets out of Iowa" — a nod to the fact that in the last five decades, the eventual presidential nominee has almost always finished the caucus within the top three.

Since 1976, seven of the eight Republican nominees and eight of the last 10 Democrats were in the Iowa top three.

Brendan Smialowski

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AFP via Getty Images

One person who wasn't surprised by last night's results is former Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker — who ran against Trump in the 2016 Republican primary.

Walker emerged as an early front-runner in the GOP race, but suspended his campaign before the Iowa caucuses and called on other Republican candidates in the crowded field to do the same.

He served as governor until 2019 and is now the president of Young America's Foundation, a conservative youth organization.

Walker told Morning Edition's Steve Inskeep that last night's outcome was "exactly what I expected," with an easy Trump victory and a close race for second place. And he thinks it's safe to say Trump will cinch the nomination, too.

Walker predicts New Hampshire is likely Ron DeSantis' "last stand." Even if Nikki Haley wins New Hampshire or comes close, he says, she's likely to lose her home state of South Carolina to Trump next month, as well as the other contests in March.

"It's not done yet, but it's pretty close," Walker says.

Trump has made revenge and redemption central to his reelection campaign, as Inskeep points out. But Walker argues that most Republican voters are motivated not by Trump's election falsehoods, but by what he accomplished during his time in office.

Walker says most Republican voters think DeSantis has done a solid job governing Florida and Haley was a good ambassador to the United Nations.

"So it wasn't attacks on them and preference that way over Trump," he adds. "I think more than anything in the primary — and I would say even among some swing voters in states like mine — there's a feeling amongst voters that they're tired of politicians, of candidates, who say all the right things and then go to Washington and backtrack from the things they promised when they were campaigning."

Walker believes Trump can be an effective president again if he focuses on the issues, particularly the economy, an area of top concern to young voters and one in which President Biden is seen as vulnerable.

"If he focuses on, 'Hey, life was pretty good when I was president, particularly before COVID, we can make that happen again. Here's our plan, in contrast with what's happening with President Joe Biden,' I think he's got a real shot, at least in battleground states like mine," Walker says.

NPR political correspondent Susan Davis and White House correspondent Tamara Keith listened in on Walker's interview, and say he makes some valid points.

Davis notes that young voters are an issue for the Biden campaign, with poll after poll showing a lack of enthusiasm from people age 18-35 about the state and future of the country, and Biden himself. Enthusiasm is an issue for both parties, she adds, and the question of how to get young people to the polls in 2024 looms large.

Keith says the Biden camp acknowledges it has a problem with younger voters, as well as Black and Latino voters. Biden's campaign considers independent voters "a persuasion target," she adds.

Michael M. Santiago

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Getty Images

The week between the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary is shaping up to be a busy one for former President Donald Trump — and not just because of campaign events.

Writer E. Jean Carroll's second defamation case against him is expected to begin in New York today.

Carroll first brought a civil lawsuit against Trump, alleging he sexually assaulted her in a Manhattan department store in the 1990s. Trump was found liable last year and ordered to pay $5 million.

In June 2019, while Trump was president, Carroll published a book detailing the incident, which Trump denied, saying she "is not my type." That's the defamation case scheduled for this week.

The trial is expected to last only a few days and wrap up no later than Monday, reporter Andrea Bernstein told Morning Edition.

Will Trump be in the courtroom this week? He didn't attend the last Carroll trial, Bernstein says, but has said he wants to not only attend but testify at this one.

"His lawyers tried to get the trial postponed again, claiming he had to travel for his wife's mother's funeral, but after Carroll's lawyers pointed out he had a rally scheduled on one of the dates he wanted to be off for the funeral, the judge denied that request," Bernstein says.

What could he say? The answer is contested by lawyers on both sides. Last week, New York district Judge Lewis Kaplan wrote that "the fact that Mr. Trump sexually abused — indeed, raped — Ms. Carroll has been conclusively established," effectively blocking Trump's lawyers from arguing that he did not rape her.

Bernstein stresses that the question in front of the "no-nonsense" judge is not whether Trump did it, but how much money he will have to pay.

The last Carroll lawsuit saw a verdict within hours, she adds, so the answer could theoretically come right before the New Hampshire primary next Tuesday.

Trump also faces having to pay hundreds of millions of dollars for business fraud in a separate case, in which a verdict is expected later this month.

Read more here.

The Biden administration — the president's Cabinet, in particular — has been showing a keen interest in New Hampshire in the crucial final stretch before the Jan. 23 primary.

Just last week, New Hampshire logged visits from five Cabinet secretaries: Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm and Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack on Monday, Interior Secretary Deb Haaland on Tuesday, Education Secretary Miguel Cardona on Wednesday and Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg on Friday. That's on top of recent visits from White House senior adviser Tom Perez, U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai and U.S. Small Business Administrator Isabel Casillas Guzman.

They’ve spread out across New Hampshire, talking up spending by the Biden administration on roads, schools, farms and more.

Just don’t ask them whether it all has anything to do with the primary campaign later this month.

More from NHPR ➡

On a warm December night, in a backroom of a Manchester, N.H., brewery crowded with prospective voters, Chris Barnard was trying to get then-presidential hopeful Vivek Ramaswamy on the record about his views on climate change.

“We know that this is a top three issue for young people,” said Barnard, who's the president of the American Conservation Coalition, an advocacy group focused on conservative approaches to taking action on climate change.

Brian Martinez, who leads the Northeast division for the organization, says nationally, conservative voters are paying attention to candidates' approaches to climate change. Especially younger voters.

"Young people overwhelmingly believe that climate change is real because we're seeing it," he said. "I grew up in Wisconsin. I can't tell you the last time I had a white Christmas."

Martinez cited a 2023 poll from the Cres Forum, a nonprofit focused on conservative climate solutions, which found more than 80% of Republicans under the age of 44 believe climate change is a threat.

More from NHPR ➡

Kevin Dietsch

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Getty Images

Tech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy ended his bid for president Monday night after a lackluster performance in the Iowa caucuses. The far-right, “America first” candidate was unable to break through in the Republican primary field despite attempting to set himself apart as the youngest major contender in the race.

At 38 years old, Ramaswamy often spoke about being a part of the millennial generation. Subsequently, he joined TikTok a few months back, arguing it was a necessary place to engage with young Republicans. (Young voters have largely voted for Democratic candidates in recent major elections, but about a fourth identify as Republican and more than a third identify as Independent.)

“We’re in this to reach young people, to energize young people, and to do that, we can’t just hide,” Ramaswamy said in his first post back in September. “I care about the issues that affect not just millennials but Gen Z and all young people in this county. We have a generation of politicians that is badly out of touch," he added.

Ramaswamy focused many of his posts on campaigning in Iowa and doing explainer videos tailored to younger voters. He also did collaborations featuring controversial YouTuber and boxer Jake Paul.

The account has more than 357,000 followers.

Ramaswamy was the only major GOP presidential contender to have an official TikTok presence, while his former opponents publicly came out against using the social media platform.

Joseph Prezioso

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AFP via Getty Images

Following Haley's third-place finish in Iowa, the focus now turns to New Hampshire in the race for the Republican presidential nomination. The first-in-the-nation primary represents a big opportunity for Haley, who, recent polls show, has a chance to pull off an upset victory over Trump, the front-runner who just trounced his rivals in Iowa. Haley is counting on moderate Republicans, independents and even some Democrats to give her a boost in the Granite State.

New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu predicts that independents will come out in record numbers on primary day and help Haley catch Trump. He believes Trump has reached a "ceiling" of support because many people are just "tired of the chaos."

"I've been in this game long enough to know that political momentum is real," Sununu said.

More from WBUR ➡

Holly Ramer

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AP

The New Hampshire primary is exactly one week away.

Nikki Haley is expected to perform better there than in Iowa — and perhaps even win — given the state's more moderate electorate and semi-open primary, which includes unaffiliated voters.

New Hampshire Public Radio's Josh Rogers spoke to Morning Edition about what voters in the state are thinking as election season begins. Listen to that conversation here.

He notes that New Hampshire is among the least religious states in the country, and polling shows that most Republicans there support abortion rights.

And Independents make up the bulk of the electorate. They gravitated towards Trump in 2016 (he won the primary that year), and are being courted heavily by Haley this time around.

"She'll probably need their backing to make things competitive here," Rogers says.

Rogers says Haley has been finding an audience there for her argument that the country needs a generational shift in conservative leadership.

By contrast, most Republican voters Rogers talks to see Trump's legal issues as "not significant disqualifying factors."

DeSantis, he says, has some "hard-core support" in the state, but not a broad audience — his New Hampshire campaign has felt like "diminishing returns" for months.

Rogers says New Hampshire voters are most concerned about issues like the economy, inflation, the cost of housing, foreign policy and to some extent, immigration.

Voters curious about Haley, for instance, say they're attracted to what they see as her more traditional views on the U.S.' role abroad, Rogers says — whereas those who reject her often cite those same values as a concern, since it's at odds with Trump's "America First" vision.

Scott Olson

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Getty Images

Former President Donald Trump might’ve won last night’s Iowa caucus, but Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis captured the votes of one important demographic: Gen Z voters.

A CNN entrance poll showed that 35% of voters aged 17-29 voted for DeSantis, while 41% of voters aged 30-44 cast their ballots for the former president.

Only 9% of GOP caucusgoers last night were under 30, indicating that young voters aren’t interested in the top Republican candidates, says Jack Lobel, the national press secretary of Voters of Tomorrow, a Democratically aligned nonprofit that works to mobilize Gen Z voters.

“The GOP primary is a race between Donald Trump, who goes against everything young voters stand for, and a handful of other candidates who don’t stand a chance,” Lobel told NPR’s Steve Inskeep on Morning Edition. 

According to national polls, however, Trump is ahead of President Biden: A New York Times/Siena poll released last monthshows that Trump leads President Biden among young voters by 6%.

Listen to the full story here.

Jim Watson

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AFP via Getty Images

One thing is clear from last night: The polls that showed Donald Trump with a significant lead in Iowa weren't wrong.

The fact that the AP called the race for Trump in just over half an hour "confirmed that this was just Trump's night, and it put a big exclamation point on it," NPR's Don Gonyea reports this morning from Des Moines, where it's eight degrees below zero outside.

He says there are two other takeaways of note. For one, Republicans in Iowa are not bothered by the fact that their candidate of choice faces 91 criminal charges. And second, the cold weather did appear to put a damper on turnout — at least compared to the record set in 2016 — but wasn't likely to have made a huge difference.

"There's no sense here that greater turnout was going to change those numbers in any meaningful way," Gonyea says.

Winning Iowa doesn't necessarily guarantee the presidential nomination, Gonyea points out. But he says Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis are facing a steep comeback climb.

"In fact, it's a mountain," he adds.

DeSantis placed second, which Gonyea says he needed based on all he'd invested in the state — visiting all of Iowa's 99 counties and securing the endorsement of its governor. Gonyea says DeSantis arguably needed a "better second place than he got, but this gives him something to hang on to to fight another day."

As for Haley, Gonyea says she's likely at least a little disappointed given her recent rise in the polls, which suggested she could have finished second. But she was always expected to do better in New Hampshire, with its more moderate electorate.

One more notable development: The GOP primary field has narrowed, with Vivek Ramaswamy suspending his race after finishing fourth. Gonyea says those votes are likely to go to Trump — whom Ramaswamy endorsed — since they're running "in the same lane."

Peter Foley/Pool

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AFP via Getty Images

The next few weeks will be crucial for the Republican presidential candidates as the primary gets into full swing.

By March 5, aka Super Tuesday, Republicans will have allocated almost half of their delegates. A week later, they'll be up to 54%. And 71% of delegates are set to be decided by the end of the month.

At the same time, former President Donald Trump's trials — over his handling of classified documents, alleged hush money payments and efforts to overturn the 2020 election results at the state and federal levels — will be gearing up.

Trump, the first former president to be federally indicted, faces 91 criminal charges in four different cases. His legal team has sought to delay them all until after the election.

Trump's federal trial for attempting to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election is set to begin March 4, the day before Super Tuesday, after a judge rejected the defense's request this year to delay the case to 2026.

The trial's outcome and timeline are also notable because almost half of Republican voters have said they wouldn't support the former president if he is convicted of a felony, according to an August Reuters/Ipsos poll.

But this primary calendar means there won't be a verdict in any of the multiple cases against Trump before the nominee is essentially decided.

In total, Trump faces four scheduled criminal trials, including a criminal trial in Georgia that prosecutors have proposed to begin on Aug. 5 — just weeks after the July 15-18 Republican National Convention.

Read more here.

Iowa and New Hampshire, the first to states to hold their nominating contests, tend to produce different winners. There are a couple of factors that help explain that pattern.

For one, the people who vote in each of these early nominating states are very different.

A majority of Iowa voters have historically been religious conservatives, more rural and more likely to consider themselves “very conservative.” Historically, about 6 in 10 Iowa Republican caucus-goers self-identify as white evangelicals or born-again Christians.

New Hampshire GOP primary voters, on the other hand, are more moderate and more likely to live in the suburbs.

The two states also vote differently, logistically speaking.

Iowa is a closed system, so only Republicans can participate. But independents are allowed to vote in New Hampshire's semi-open primary, which helps explain its more moderate electorate.

Unaffiliated, or “undeclared,” voters make up about 40% of New Hampshire voters, so they can make a big difference.

The New Hampshire primary will take place on Tuesday, Jan. 23.

After a year of campaigning and more than $120 million in ad spending in Iowa, the caucuses have come and gone.

And the result was ... what everyone pretty much expected.

Former President Donald Trump won in a landslide.

So what does it all mean? Here are five takeaways:

1. Republicans have been saying they're still with Trump. Believe them.
2. Trump's criminal indictments have only helped him — at least with the GOP base.
3. DeSantis will interpret his second-place finish as a reason to keep on going, but a path to the nomination for him looks closed.
4. The stakes for Haley in New Hampshire just went up.
5. Caucuses just don't feature high participation.

Read the full analysis here.

Nikki Haley, the former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations and former governor of South Carolina, thanked her supporters after coming in third in the Iowa Republican caucuses on Monday.

“I came to Iowa early and often,” she said. “And I will be forever grateful for the time that we’ve had.”

Haley also congratulated Trump on his blowout victory in this year’s first presidential nominating contest.

Even though Haley didn’t win the Iowa caucuses, she credited the state for her presidential campaign’s ascent in the past several months. She said she started with 2% support in the polls in a crowded field of GOP candidates, but has since become a serious contender for the nomination.

“If you look at how we are doing in New Hampshire and South Carolina and beyond,” Haley said, “I can safely say that Iowa made this Republican primary a two-person race.”

During a speech to her supporters at an event in Iowa on Monday, Haley positioned herself as an alternative to both Trump and Biden -- who are both unpopular among a majority of voters. She said voters are particularly not interested in another Trump and Biden matchup.

“Our campaign is the last best hope of stopping the Trump-Biden nightmare,” she said.

New Hampshire will hold its presidential primary next week, where Trump is also expected to win. But that race is expected to be a little tighter — with Haley polling much closer to Trump than any other candidate.

Jim Watson

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AFP via Getty Images

Donald Trump thanked Iowans for his win in the state’s presidential caucus Monday.

Trump, who is projected to win this year’s first presidential contest with a double-digit lead, also thanked his team and supporters who turned out to vote despite the arctic blast that brought freezing temperatures throughout the state.

“This has been an incredible experience,” he said.

This is the second time that Trump has won the Iowa caucuses, although during his speech he erroneously claimed to have won nominating contests in the state three times. Trump won the caucuses in 2020 but lost to Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas in 2016.

While addressing his supporters in Iowa, Trump criticized President Joe Biden over the country’s southern border, crime and wars abroad.

“He is the worst president that we have had in the history of our country,” he said. “He is destroying our country.”

Trump also congratulated his opponents for the GOP nomination, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley and businessman Vivek Ramaswamy, who Trump said “did a hell of a job.”

“They did very well,” he said of the three.

Trump noted that despite all the money and time his opponents spent in Iowa, they were unable to gain traction in a race that Trump was overwhelmingly favored to win.

“Traction is never easy,” he said. "You need controversy for traction."

Trump said he expects to dominate during the next presidential contest in New Hampshire next week.

Zachary Oren Smith

Turnout was low for Democrats in Iowa, as expected. Iowa City City High had seven Democratic Party caucuses happening under the same roof. About 25 people showed up to set it up. About another 25 showed up to caucus.

Andy Coghill-Behrends was working the caucus sign-in table. He’s been volunteering with the party for years and says he wasn’t really surprised by the turnout.

“Maybe a little bit lower than 2012 for Obama's second term, but it’s actually a pretty decent turnout I would say, given the conditions outside.”

That 2012 turnout number is one Iowa Democratic Party Chair Rita Hart was hoping for. In a release Monday night, Hart thanked Democrats for coming out in the sub-zero temperatures.

Iowa Democrats are showing their presidential preference by mail this year. They can request a card online. The last day to request a preference card is Feb. 19. The results will be released March 5, on Super Tuesday.

Republican resistance to Donald Trump’s overwhelming caucus victory came in pockets throughout Iowa, including in Cedar Falls and the Cedar Valley.

As in the rest of Iowa, Republicans gathered to caucus despite subzero temperatures and the former president’s presumptive victory.

The former president’s caucus dominance did not go unchallenged, though. Former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley had a strong showing in the Cedar Valley.

Josh Wilson, who caucused for Haley, said he’s tired of political division and thinks Haley might be the answer.

“I’m actually looking for a candidate who can attract other people, not just Republicans, because it’s just not very realistic to think that only Republicans, or Democrats for that matter, are the ones who are going to elect a president. You need those people that are from other parties.”

While the former president won the caucus, Haley came in second in Black Hawk County.

Supporters of Vivek Ramaswamy made a relatively strong showing in Cedar Falls. Hemanshu Patel, who caucused for Ramaswamy, said that while Ramaswamy and the former president have similar ideas, there is one stark difference.

“If you’re a leader, you need to have a vision, and Donald Trump isn’t presenting it. It’s all about, ‘They did this to me,’ and, ‘It’s all unfair.’ We understand that, but what are you presenting to the American public, and to the youth?”

Ramaswamy would ultimately take home about 8% of the state’s total caucus vote, and end his campaign for the Republican nomination later in the night.

Kevin Dietsch

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Getty Images

Businessman Vivek Ramaswamy announced Monday he is suspending his campaign for president.

“We did not achieve the surprise that we wanted to deliver tonight,” Ramaswamy said.

As of 11:25 p.m. ET, Ramaswamy was running fourth at just under 8 percent with 93% of the vote counted, according to The Associated Press.

The first-time candidate ran a largely self-funded campaign — stressing his business background, outside of traditional politics.

At 38 years old, he was also the youngest major Republican candidate in the race and often spoke about engaging with young Republicans.

Following his announcement to suspend, Ramaswamy publicly endorsed former President Trump in his re-election bid.

Scott Olson

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Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis finished second in the Republican caucuses in Iowa, according to a race call by The Associated Press.

As of 11:22 p.m. ET, DeSantis had 21.3% of the vote, trailing former President Donald Trump by nearly 30 percentage points. Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley trailed DeSantis by a little more than 2 percentage points.

DeSantis and Haley have been neck and neck in Iowa polling leading up to Monday night. That said, Haley has narrowly surpassed DeSantis innational polling averages.

Heading into caucus night, the Florida governor prioritized campaigning throughout Iowa — making a point to go to all of the state’s 99 counties.

DeSantis also racked up coveted endorsements from Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds and evangelical Christian leader Bob Vander Plaats, who had endorsed the last three Republican Iowa caucus winners.

Despite finishing ahead of Haley tonight, DeSantis is expected to face a steeper challenge against both Trump and Haley in the New Hampshire primary on Jan 23.

Following Monday night’s election, DeSantis is expected to shift his focus past New Hampshire to South Carolina, which votes on Feb. 24.

Chip Somodevilla/

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Former President Donald Trump acknowledged his victory in the Iowa caucuses Monday evening in a post on his social media platform, Truth Social.

"THANK YOU IOWA, I LOVE YOU ALL!" he wrote.

As of 10:25 p.m. ET, Trump holds a 34-point lead over Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who stands at 19.9%, and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley at 17.7%, according to The Associated Press.

The AP has yet to call second- or third-place finishers.

Jim Watson

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AFP via Getty Images

Trump's win comes after days of severe weather, resulting in snow and extremely cold temperatures throughout Iowa.

Trump canceled several in-person events over the weekend because of the weather, holding just one on Sunday.

"You can't sit home," he said at a rally in Indianola, Iowa, on Sunday. "Even if you vote and then pass away, it's worth it."

Leading up to tonight's caucuses, Trump's polling lead, both in Iowa and nationally, has endured despite his indictment on 91 charges in four criminal cases.

He also appeared to not take a hit in recent polls for skipping all of the GOP presidential candidate debates.

Iowa winters are usually pretty brutal, but this week’s arctic blast delivered some staggeringly low temperatures just in time for 2024’s first presidential contest.

The lowest recorded temperature in Des Moines today was -8 degrees — with wind chills in the -20s and -30s.

This is significantly lower than some of the most recent Iowa caucuses. But, cold weather during the caucuses has always been the norm.

According to the National Weather Service, one the last chilly Iowa caucus days was in 2008 when it got down to 4 degrees. In 2000, it got down to 5 degrees.

Compared to the last few elections, though, this year’s weather stands out. During 2016 and 2020’s Iowa caucuses, the temperature got down to 27 and 29 degrees, respectively.

Bad weather can always affect an election, but it can be particularly impactful in a caucus.

Unlike a traditional primary — which allows for in-person early voting and mail voting in most cases — voters in a caucus have only one opportunity to show up in person to cast their vote. So icy roads and freezing temperatures could affect turnout in this year’s caucus.

Grant Gerlock

If Ron DeSantis drops out, many of his voters say that former President, and Iowa caucus winner, Donald Trump, will be their next choice.

DeSantis voters say they chose him because they believe he's more electable. They also expressed concern that Trump has so many enemies in Washington D.C. that it'll be harder to get his policy initiatives pushed forward.

Meanwhile, backers of Nikki Haley are expressing sentiments that they just might not vote come November.

Zachary Oren Smith

What drove people who showed up to the Iowa Democratic caucuses despite a -24 windchill, a reelection year and so many changes? Deep party motivation and loyalty.

IPR’s Zachary Oren Smith says for many, this wasn’t their first election or caucus.

Monday’s caucus isn’t about the presidency at all for Democrats. Voters won’t be able to weigh in on their choice for president until they get a presidential preference card in the mail.

It’s been a tricky balancing act between state leaders and national leaders. By holding their caucus tonight and releasing results on Super Tuesday, Democrats say they've met both state law and DNC rules.

Joe Raedle

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Getty Images file photo

Iowa and New Hampshire, the first to states to hold their nominating contests, tend to produce different winners. There are a couple of factors that help explain that.

For one, the people who vote in each of these early nominating states are very different.

A majority of Iowa voters have historically been religious conservatives, more rural and more likely to consider themselves “very conservative.” Historically, about six in 10 Iowa Republican caucus-goers self identify as white evangelical or born-again Christians.

New Hampshire GOP primary voters, on the other hand, are more likely to live in the suburbs.

The two states also vote differently, logistically speaking.

Iowa is a closed system, so only Republicans can participate. But independents are allowed to vote in New Hampshire's semi-open primary, which helps explain its more moderate electorate.

Unaffiliated, or “undeclared,” voters make up about 40% of New Hampshire voters, so they can make a big difference.

The New Hampshire primary will take place on Tuesday, Jan. 23.

Scott Olson

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Getty Images

The campaign for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis strongly rejected the early victory call by multiple outlets for former President Donald Trump in the Iowa caucuses in a statement released this evening.

"It is absolutely outrageous that the media would participate in election interference by calling the race before tens of thousands of Iowans even had a chance to vote," DeSantis campaign communications director Andrew Romeo said in the statement. "The media is in the tank for Trump and this is the most egregious example yet."

The Associated Press called Trump the victor for the caucus after an analysis of a large amount of entrance poll data that gives an idea of where the race is headed.

Tonight's results are unofficial, but the AP has a long history of calling race results and has explained how it came to this result in quick fashion.

The AP said this was in addition to the results of "AP VoteCast, a survey of voters who planned to caucus on Monday night."

"Initial results from eight counties showed Trump with far more than half of the total votes counted as of 8:31 pm. ET, with the rest of the field trailing far behind," the AP reported.

This early information indicated Trump had "an insurmountable lead."

NPR relies on AP for its race calls.

Bob Vander Plaats, the president and CEO of The Family Leader is questioning the AP call that former President Donald Trump won the Iowa caucuses.

“I don’t know how you call an Iowa caucus two minutes after the voting stopped,” Vander Plaats said. “Ron DeSantis easily won my precinct. As we speak. I’m getting texts from key precincts that DeSantis won those precincts.”

The Iowa caucuses, Vander Plaats added, are just the beginning of this process, not the ending.

“I’d be more than happy to talk about this tomorrow after the final totals are in. I don’t think Trump is going to get 50% tonight, and if he’s below 50% tonight, I think it’s a big warning sign about how cohesive the Republican Party will be.”

The AP was able to call the results because of an analysis of a large amount of entrance poll data that gives the outlet an idea of where the race is headed.

The Family Leader is a major conservative political organization in western Iowa that led the call to oust justices on the Iowa Supreme Court who legalized same-sex marriage.

Kevin Dietsch

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Bruce LeVell, a senior adviser to former President Donald Trump, said the early race call for Trump only confirms the campaign's confidence that Trump will win the Republican nomination.

“It will be a sweep all the way,” LeVell said as the campaign looks to winning the next nominating contests in New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada.

In an interview with NPR’s Scott Detrow and Ayesha Rascoe, LeVell also compared Trump’s 91 criminal charges to those faced by civil rights activists in the 1960s.

LeVell said that just like how Rev. Martin Luther King Jr. was arrested for trying to get citizens to vote, the criminal charges against Trump are being used to “try to persecute and block President Trump from being on the ballot.”

He also said Trump is “technically the incumbent president,” falsely implying that President Biden is not the legitimate president.

“It's blatant that this Biden administration is trying to stop President Trump from being on the ballot. Period,” LeVell said.

Rachel Mummey

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Bloomberg via Getty Images

While Republicans in Iowa are convening for their caucuses, the Biden campaign is warning voters that Trump is running on an extreme agenda that is detrimental to the country.

“We know that voters have rejected Donald Trump and the dangerous MAGA agenda that has threatened basic freedoms, their democracy, their pocketbooks,” said Julie Chavez Rodriguez, Biden’s campaign manager, in an interview with NPR’s Ayesha Rascoe and Scott Detrow. “We know that they’ll reject it again in November.”

Meanwhile, the Biden campaign is emphasizing the Biden-Harris administration’s accomplishments, including investments in national infrastructure, passing gun safety legislation and expanding health care access.

“The president’s record of accomplishment is really second to none,” she said.

Read more about the kind of messaging the Biden campaign has pushed in recent weeks:

• Biden used to never mention Trump’s name. Now, he’s directly invoking him to raise alarms.
• One other tactic Biden’s using? Calling Trump a loser. 
• For Biden, the 2024 election is about a fight to defend democracy.

Kevin Dietsch

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Two Republican candidates are battling for second place behind former President Donald Trump.

As of 9 p.m. ET, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley remain in a close race for second place, according to incoming vote counts by the Associated Press.

A second-place spot could have consequential ramifications for either DeSantis or Haley as both fight to stay in the race against Trump, who remains the dominant front-runner nationally.

That said, it's unclear when a second-place finisher will be named. Just 2% of the results are in, according to the AP.

Jim Watson

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AFP via Getty Images

A little over 30 minutes after the Iowa caucuses began, the Associated Press called the results for former President Donald Trump with around 1% of results in.

The whole process was expected to take about an hour and a half.

The caucus was called so early people are still voting and any supporters for Trump haven't even showed up to the watch party yet, according to NPR reporter Danielle Kurtzleben who is at the former president's campaign headquarters in Iowa.

The AP was able to call the results because of an analysis of a large amount of entrance poll data that gives the outlet an idea of where the race is headed.

The AP said this was in addition to the results of "AP VoteCast, a survey of voters who planned to caucus on Monday night."

"Initial results from eight counties showed Trump with far more than half of the total votes counted as of 8:31 pm. ET, with the rest of the field trailing far behind," the AP reported.

This early information indicated Trump had "an insurmountable lead."

The AP called the GOP caucus winner just over half an hour into caucus night. Many caucus sites are still working through their process and caucusgoers are submitting their votes.

With former President Donald Trump named the winner, now attention moves to who comes in second. And former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley hopes to take that spot. She's expecting a strong finish tonight, and needs to come out of Iowa looking strong going into New Hampshire.

Haley's main case throughout the start of the presidential process has been electability. She's emphasized her experience as a former governor and U.N. ambassador. She's also pointed out that while Trump might have been the right choice in 2016, he's now bringing chaos into the party. And she's focused on working to move the GOP on past Trump and the past eight years.

Clay Masters

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IPR

The Associated Press has called the Iowa caucuses for former President Donald Trump at 7:33 p.m. in Iowa.

As a call to order commences at the Western Iowa Tech precinct in Sioux City, it’s -6 outside — but it feels like -26.

IPR's Sheila Brummer reports that the precinct is seeing higher turnout than expected.

For some voters, the caucus is a chance to get out of their homes and make their voices heard. At this precinct in Sioux City, a deeply red part of the state, there appears to be lots of Trump supporters, and a few for DeSantis.

Most Republican presidential hopefuls spent the final hours before tonight's caucuses hitting campaign stops throughout Iowa. NPR and member station reporters described some scenes from the trail on All Things Considered:

Anna Moneymaker

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• Ron DeSantis: The Florida governor made several media appearances and spoke to voters at events in Sergeant Bluff, Council Bluffs and Cedar Rapids. Minnesota Public Radio's Clay Masters says that volunteers from Florida have headed to the Iowa HQ of the pro-DeSantis super PAC Never Back Down in recent days to help DeSantis as he makes his final case. "He's got a lot of organization and investment in the state," Masters said.

Chip Somodevilla

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Getty Images

• Donald Trump: NPR's Danielle Kurtzleben reported Trump and his surrogates are telling Iowans who support him not to take for granted his large lead in the polls, urging them to still turn out for the caucuses. Trump was represented by a number of surrogates on the ground today, including Rep. Matt Gaetz, R-Fla., and the former president appeared at a caucus center in Clive, Iowa.

Kevin Dietsch

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• Vivek Ramaswamy: Masters reports the businessman said this morning that he's going to win the Iowa caucuses. He made several stops on Monday, including Urbandale and Cedar Rapids. With his low polling in the weeks before the caucuses, Ramaswamy claimed on X that the media is unfairly leaving him out of election coverage in a way that is "deliberate" and a form of "voter suppression."

Carolyn Kaster

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AP

• Nikki Haley: Haley made several stops in the hours leading up to the caucuses, including one at PB's Pub in Newton, and she and her daughter also shopped for baked goods at The Bread Board in Pella. She closed out the day with a final telephone town hall, during which she reiterated her pitch to Iowa voters as representing a new generation of leadership.

Sheila Brummer

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IPR

The 2024 Iowa caucuses have begun.

Win McNamee

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Iowa state Sen. Chris Cournoyer, Nikki Haley’s campaign co-chair, said she hopes for a second-place finish, which she said would be a strong finish in a state where former President Trump has dominated the polls.

Haley spent the weekend doing a mix of in-person and remote events around this very cold state.

She closed out this evening with a final telephone town hall before caucusing began, during which she reiterated her pitch to Iowa voters:

Haley said the nation is “on fire” and that her experience as a former South Carolina governor and ambassador to the United Nations has prepared her to provide a new generation of leadership for the country.

Sheila Brummer

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IPR

Doors are opening at caucus precincts across Iowa and voters are signing up to take part. Caucuses commence at 7 p.m.

Evan Vucci

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AP

Back in 2018, when he was running for governor of Florida, Ron DeSantis famously released an ad in which he taught his young children about then-President Donald Trump.

And Trump really liked DeSantis, endorsing and praising him. At one 2019 rally, Trump introduced DeSantis and praised his bod in the process.

"And then I see him without a shirt one day, and this guy is strong! And he's not fat — that's all power. That's all muscle. I wanna tell you that," Trump told the crowd.

But then DeSantis became a top potential presidential candidate. As of early 2023, he was within spitting distance of Trump in the polls — around 10 points.

So Trump started expending a lot of energy slamming DeSantis. In a recent speech in New Hampshire, he mocked DeSantis, accusing the governor of wearing lifts in his boots.

DeSantis steadily sank in the polls throughout last year and is now more than 30 points behind Trump in Iowa, according to FiveThirtyEight. That's for a variety of reasons, but one obvious possibility is that there may simply not be much room in this primary for a guy who's so clearly Trumpist but isn't Trump.

DeSantis spent a lot of this campaign seemingly ignoring Trump's attacks. But now he is ramping up his criticism of Trump, and often hitting one point hard: He would actually do the Trumpist policies, and better than Trump did.

It's clear that the former president is looming heavily over the DeSantis campaign in the days before the Iowa primary contest. And perhaps unsurprisingly, it's also clear that Trump weighs heavily on DeSantis voters' minds as well.

Read the full story here.

Alex Wong

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In case you were curious: The word "caucus" is believed to come from the Algonquin Indian word "cau´-cau-as´u."

It means "one who advises, urges, encourages" and "to talk to ... give counsel, advise, encourage, and to urge, promote, incite to action."

The first known use of "caucus" is thought to be a February 1763 diary entry by John Adams that refers to a club by that name, though an earlier spelling ("corcas") appeared in the Boston Gazette in 1760, according to Oxford University Press.

Nominating caucuses have been around in some form since the 1800s, according to Britannica.

A caucus of a party's members in Congress nominated its candidates for president and vice president from 1796 until 1824. Meanwhile, party members of state legislatures nominated candidates for governor and lieutenant governor.

Critics grew increasingly dissatisfied with what they called the "King Caucus" system, since it didn't allow the general public to participate directly. The election of 1824 was the first in which a majority of electors were chosen by voters.

In the decades that followed, many states went on to adopt primary elections, which are generally seen as more accessible and straightforward. But parties in several states — including North Dakota and Wyoming — still hold caucuses.

You can find a list of all those dates here.

Chip Somodevilla

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Duane Brown, a caucus captain who backs Donald Trump, says he has supported the former president since Day One and doesn’t think the bitter cold will keep supporters away from the caucuses.

“I think we’ll have a big turnout," Brown said. "Basically, the fate of the nation hangs on this.”

Brown lives in the northwestern Iowa community of Sioux City, one of the most conservative spots in the state. He says the country can’t afford four more years of “communist” Joe Biden, and voters want someone who can fix inflation and the southern border.

John Pemble

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IPR

An Iowa State University poll suggests that Haley supporters may vote for Biden in the event Trump wins the nomination.

David Peterson, a professor of political science at Iowa State University, suggests Haley supporters and Trump supporters have very different outlooks on recent major events.

"The Nikki Haley supporters say Joe Biden won a fair election. We asked questions about Trump's indictments, and the Nikki Haley supporters say that Trump has committed federal crimes."

Peterson says this is part of the reason he expects Haley supporters to turn to Biden.

"Nikki Haley supporters, even Republican Nikki Haley supporters, say that they're going to be likely to vote for Biden, because these are the Republicans who believe that Biden won, and who believe that Trump has committed crimes and is likely to be convicted of these crimes before the general election."

Listen to the full conversation on IPR's River to River.

Iowa Public Radio's Caucus Land podcast looks at the history of the Iowa caucuses and why the mission of keeping Iowa first in the presidential race is so important to the state parties. The following is an excerpt from Episode 1: Losing first-in-the-nation.

The 2020 Iowa Democratic caucuses didn’t end well. Results were supposed to start rolling quickly as caucus sites completed their work, but a new app for results submissions didn’t work properly. Hours later, results still weren’t known.

The mood among campaigns — and Democrats in the state — went from celebratory to angry. Questions started flying – specifically, whether Iowa should still be the leadoff state in the nominating process.

What happened next

The Democratic National Committee’s Rules and Bylaws committee is tasked with setting the calendar of early states in the presidential nominating process. Following the 2020 caucuses, the committee met several times to evaluate who should go first. The Iowa Democratic Party attempted to placate the DNC, proposing dramatic changes to the caucus process to keep its first place spot.

Impact of the Midterms

The Rules and Bylaws committee decided to hold off on making a decision until after the 2022 midterm election cycle. Iowa experienced a big red wave — while the rest of the country didn’t, calling into question whether it was a competitive state for the party.

A month after the midterms, President Biden wrote a letter to the DNC. Biden expressed his support for changing the order of the states in the nominating process. In the letter, he also encouraged the reordering process to be revisited every four years.

In February, 2023, the DNC voted to move Iowa down the line of states. By October 2023 Iowa Democrats and the DNC had compromised: Iowa Democrats would hold their caucuses the same day as Iowa Republicans — Jan. 15. But they would only hold the party business portion of the caucuses. Instead, Iowa Democrats would mail in presidential preference cards, with the results announced on Super Tuesday (March 5).

The future

The Iowa Democratic Party is currently planning to try for the first spot in the nominating calendar for the 2028 cycle.

Listen to IPR’s Caucus Land.

Anna Moneymaker

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If you talk to enough DeSantis voters, it becomes clear that he is hitting one specific lane well: people who liked Trump’s policies but not his demeanor or political abilities.

Sarah Harbaugh, recently saw DeSantis speak in Cedar Falls:

"My lean towards DeSantis is more just to — I'm not sure that the media and the country would allow Trump to do what he wants to do. Where DeSantis, I think, might have a better chance at getting things done."

DeSantis has done seemingly everything he can to win in Iowa — he has visited all 99 counties and has Gov. Kim Reynolds’ endorsement.

And while he has loyal supporters, particularly among socially conservative white evangelicals, it’s not clear that there’s enough of a lane for him in Iowa.

Joe Raedle

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Getty Images

The big question tonight is whether former President Donald Trump does as well as some of the polls here would suggest. Clearly on the ground, there is plenty of support here. It's definitely Trump country, the further away from Des Moines that you get.

Rachel Payne Caufield, a professor at Drake University, explains:

"If Donald Trump is able to get more than 50% on caucus night, he is the absolute, undefeated winner," Payne Caufield said. "And it would be hard, I think, for anybody to even remotely think that there's a viable alternative to Donald Trump."

"If, however he comes in at, say, 42% and Nikki Haley or Ron DeSantis is able to come up to, say, 25%, then the story out of Iowa is momentum for an alternative to Donald Trump."

The Republican Party of Iowa will use an app to transmit 2024 results from precincts to state headquarters. Iowa GOP Co-chair Linda Upmeyer says she’s confident that the new system will hold up, even with heavy usage.

"This is not an app that someone sent us at the last minute as sometimes happens, we observe, and we don't know if it works. This has been tested."

Upmeyer encourages precincts to use the app to make their selections, as the alternative, phone lines, are expected to have long wait times.

"So we've had staff all over the state, working with every one of these precincts, every one of these caucuses, to go through exactly how the app works, exactly how the process works."

Upmeyer says in the event that the app does fail, they'll turn to the phones as a backup system.

Listen to the full conversation on IPR’s River to River.

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Former President Donald Trump spent much of Monday slamming two of his rivals, Nikki Haley and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.

When Haley was asked if DeSantis should drop out if he comes in third in Iowa, she said it's a personal choice:

"That's for Ron to decide. I have never said when someone should get out of the race. It's very personal to get into a race like this; it's very personal to get out. We've been focused on our race."

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The focus of the Iowa caucuses is centered on former President Donald Trump, Nikki Haley and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis — much to the chagrin of Vivek Ramaswamy.

The latest polls show Trump with a sizable lead followed by Haley and DeSantis.

But Ramaswamy, who is polling fourth in the single digits behind DeSantis, is posting frequently on social media griping that news outlets, including CNN and Fox, are leaving him out of reporting on the caucuses.

On Monday morning he complained on X, the platform formerly known as Twitter, that a Fox News Iowa map focused just on the top three contenders.

"I was in the Fox News studio in Des Moines this morning and noticed something interesting: They forgot one candidate tonight. I’ll trust them to fix it," he wrote.

The businessman and Republican candidate retweeted several users who claimed Ramaswamy is being ignored in the race, some comparing it to "erasure." Ramaswamy has been using phrases like "rigged" to describe the lack of attention on him in polls and on media platforms.

But Ramaswamy and his campaign are using this to bolster support in Iowa, urging his backers to come out in the freezing temps to vote for him to "stick it to the media and shock the world."

Iowa Public Radio's Caucus Land podcast looks at the history of the Iowa Caucuses and why the mission of keeping Iowa first in the presidential race is so important to the state parties. The following is an excerpt from Episode 4: The perspective that is lost.

Sitting next to her husband on the FOX News Channel on Dec. 8, 2023, Casey DeSantis asked supporters from out-of-state to come to Iowa to caucus.

“We're asking all of these moms and grandmoms to come from wherever it might be — North Carolina, South Carolina — and to descend upon the state of Iowa to be a part of the caucus, because you do not have to be a resident of Iowa to be able to participate in the caucus. So moms and grand moms are gonna be able to come and be a part and to let their voice be heard in support of Ron DeSantis.”

The Republican Party of Iowa immediately issued this reminder: you must be a legal resident of Iowa and the precinct you live in to participate in the caucuses.

Kedron Bardwell, a political science professor at Simpson College in Indianola, said the DeSantis’ FOX appearance is just one example of how misinformation can take over. Even after calling out Casey DeSantis on social media for the blunder, Trump also told voters in Newton on Jan. 6 that he was going to come caucus, even though he cannot.

“Misinformation arises when people see something, believe something, share something without going through the process that a normal editorial editor or an editorial process would catch," Bardwell said. "With no gatekeeper, things spread immediately. And there's really no stopping them. Where do you make the correction? When there's a million people sharing something?”

Listen to IPR’s Caucus Land.

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Low temperatures are driving concerns about low caucus turnout tonight. And participation in the Republican Iowa caucus has historically been low to begin with.

The GOP turnout record for the caucuses is 186,000 from 2016. That’s only about 25% of registered Republicans.

The previous record of 121,000 from 2012 represents only about 16%. That’s well shy of the overall turnout record, 239,000, on either side in the caucuses set by Democrats in 2008.

Part of that may be explained by the logistics — voters must show up in person and stay potentially for hours, which can be a problem for people with disabilities, those who have irregular schedules and parents who lack childcare, among other groups.

So why hold caucuses when primaries are more accessible? Proponents of caucuses says voters are more engaged.

"Rather than simply going in and out of a voting place, caucusgoers have a say in party affairs at the community level," writes NPR's Domenico Montanaro. "That's notable when two-thirds of Americans have reported feeling a sense of non-belonging in the country overall and three-quarters said they feel that way in their own communities."

Here are the numbers from previous GOP caucuses, excluding the years when a Republican incumbent ran for reelection:

• 2016: 186,743
• 2012: 121,503
• 2008: 118,411
• 2000: 86,440
• 1996: 96,451
• 1988: 108,806
• 1980: 10,6051

Iowa set a general election turnout record of 1.7 million in 2020.

As Republican caucusgoers prepare for a frigid night of voting, Iowa GOP Co-chair Linda Upmeyer says that she doesn't expect below zero weather to factor into the results.

"I predict record turnout tonight. Iowans are resilient people. This isn't the first time that they've had cold weather. And when it's cold weather that persists more than a day or two, they learn how to get their groceries and do the things they need to do. And this is one of them. This is one of the things that they value doing. And so I think we're gonna have a really good turnout tonight."

A wind chill warning throughout central Iowa ends at noon Tuesday.

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SIOUX CITY — The blizzard warning has ended in Iowa, but the bitter cold continues, with wind chill warnings in effect until tomorrow.

Communications Director for the Republican Party of Iowa, Kush Desai, says the weather is obviously a concern as people head out to caucus tonight. But he didn’t seem overly worried.

“Iowans are Midwesterners," he said. "We're used to this in the winter. We had caucuses now for fifty years in the snow, rain, freezing temperatures.”

Temperatures will be cold, with the National Weather Service predicting sub-zero weather and wind chills as low as 45 below likely making for the coldest caucus night on record.

Desai advised caucus-goers to give themselves enough time to make it to precinct sites safely. Everyone must be in place by 7 p.m. CST to make their choice count.

In the 2016 Iowa caucuses, Trump came in second to Sen. Ted Cruz, who ran a traditional caucus campaign in the state. While Cruz followed the established caucus formula, Trump tapped into shifting voter sentiments. Specifically, he worked to be appealing to voters feeling left behind and looked down upon.

Researchers have since spent time investigating what happened and why Iowa’s politics in the intervening years have changed so drastically. Iowa State University Sociology Professor Dan Krier and his peers Abdi Kusow and Ann Oberhouser studied county-level data from the U.S. Census Bureau and the Bureau of Labor Statistics, looking at how specific identifiers may have affected voting.

Their research showed that rural white voters without a college education were influential in the massive countywide shift to Republican. But it wasn’t economic well-being driving the change — it was social identities and rurality.

In follow-up interviews, the research team found that many of the sampled residents shared a narrative embedded in agrarian populism — basically that elites were damaging or victimizing the “people.”

Residents in smaller communities emphasized their sense of local loss. And it’s based on an out-migration cycle: younger people have left smaller communities and not returned, resulting in local labor shortages. Those filling the labor needs have been seen as minorities and people from outside the communities. And as minorities and outsiders have moved into those communities, the remaining community members have felt a shift in their community culture. As one respondent said: “It’s just not the same small community that it used to be because of, ya know different cultures.”

The researchers also uncovered resentment against demographically and economically advantaged areas — that there’s a sense that all of the state’s resources go to urban areas, while the smaller areas don’t get their fair share against the work and effort they put in.

This context is useful in seeing the shift in Iowa’s elections. The language and framing of populism and identity movements on the political right are directly integrated into the political culture of rural America. Former President Trump’s rhetoric gave it voice in 2016 at the highest level.

Listen to Iowa Public Radio's Caucus Land.

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Iowa has gone first in the presidential primary season for a long time — over half a century. But despite the caucuses being a longstanding tradition in American presidential politics, some political figures have also advocated to scrap the process.

The Democrats abandoned the Iowa Caucuses this year following technical issues in 2020 that caused delays in tabulating results.

As Republicans get ready to caucus, some think this year could be the finale.

“It's likely the last Iowa caucus, as we have come to know and some have come to love,” said Democratic strategist and data analyst Tom Bonier.

“I, for one, won't miss it,” he laughed. “In this country, we need to be doing everything we can to make it easier for people to vote. And we need to be bringing more diverse voices in… I think it's probably for the best that they move on.”

To Bonier, the lack of flexibility in caucuses limits who can participate.

It’s an unconventional system to get behind: There’s no early or mail voting, and all caucusgoers must show up in person at 7 p.m. CT. And this year, that also means braving the freezing weather.

But for Republicans, they’re pushing on with business as usual. And despite voiced criticism over caucus restrictions, compared to primaries, some Republicans still think the system works.

“I wouldn't say the caucuses are outdated,” said former Iowa state Rep. Joe Mitchell. “I actually think they're the best way to do elections specifically for the top person that's going to be the nominee of your party for a presidential election.”

Mitchell leads the organization Run GenZ, which supports young Republicans vying for local and state office. He plans to caucus for former President Donald Trump.

“Being able to have some discourse and some true organic, grassroots people that are speaking on your behalf, I think, is a good thing,” he added.

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IPR

Iowa Democratic Party Chair Rita Hart said she was disappointed by the decision the DNC made about their nominating calendar, but is optimistic that the DNC will put Iowa back in the #1 spot in 2028.

"They've given me every assurance that we are going to be on an even keel for getting back into that first in the nation position in 2028 when it, when we're gonna have a much more competitive line up," she said on IPR's River to River.

Hart says Iowa is special because it's a state that's more affordable for candidates to travel through, and get up close and personal with people.

"I think it's so vital that small rural states like Iowa have a voice in this presidential nominating process, and have an important voice."

Here's who is still in the running for the Republican nomination:

• Former President Donald Trump
• Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley
• Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis
• Former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson
• Entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy

There is no set list of authorized candidates for the caucus, meaning that participants can vote for any candidate they prefer. The Iowa GOP will track votes for everyone named above, as well as "other," as well as Texas pastor and businessman Ryan Binkley and former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, who ended his campaign last week.

Christie is the latest to join the growing list of Republican presidential candidates who have dropped out of the race in recent months. They are:

• Miami Mayor Francis Suarez (Aug. 29)
• Former Rep. Will Hurd, R-Texas (Oct. 9)
• Former Vice President Mike Pence (Oct. 28)
• South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott (Nov. 12)
• North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum (Dec. 4)

Read more about who's running and who isn't at NPR's candidate tracker.

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Tonight's Republican caucus winners may seem largely preordained: Donald Trump is expected to come in first, followed by Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis.

But how much support each candidate gets is important — both in understanding the state of the party and the possible direction of the race, says Sarah Isgur, senior editor of the online conservative magazine The Dispatch.

"The Iowa caucuses matter in a sense, at least historically, when we look back on this election for the role that Donald Trump played in taking over the Republican Party, really owning the Republican Party, and that's why we're going to be watching it so closely," she told Morning Edition on Monday.

One question in Isgur's mind: How closely might Haley come in second place? That momentum is important heading into New Hampshire later this month, where Haley has cut into Trump's sizable lead.

In fact, Isgur says, Haley is expected to win in New Hampshire (which has a more moderate electorate than Iowa).

From there, she says Haley's camp has a bit of a problem since she's "not really playing in Nevada at all" and trailing Trump in South Carolina — her home state — by double digits. Then comes Super Tuesday, "which is basically a national election where Donald Trump is up 30+ points."

"The strategy of the Haley campaign at this point is to win New Hampshire, and that momentum will dull Donald Trump's hold on the party, and they're really counting on that," she explains.

What does any of this have to do with tonight's caucus? Isgur says the connection is clear:

"They have to come in second in Iowa to hope for that win in New Hampshire."

Listen to the full interview here.

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Many conservative Gen Z and millennial voters are on the Trump train.

“Trump has courted young conservatives and younger Republicans better and more than any other candidate in the race,” said former Iowa state Rep. Joe Mitchell.

Mitchell, 26, leads Run GenZ, an organization geared at bringing young conservatives into elected office.

“You can see it in his polling numbers,” he added, arguing the former president is ahead of all the other primary candidates, despite being much older.

Trump is dominating in Iowa polls. And nationally, he’s doing well with young Republicans.

A recentNew York Times Siena College poll found that more than 6 in 10 Republican primary voters age 29 and under said they’re most likely to support Trump.

Plus, there’s also some uncertainty right now concerning the political leanings of Gen Z and millennial voters more broadly.

Though a vast majority of young voters have overwhelmingly sided with Democratic candidates in recent federal elections, some recent polling shows a much closer matchup between Trump and President Biden.

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AP

Tonight's caucuses are being hailed as the coldest on record.

The National Weather Service says highs will be between -1 and -6 degrees Fahrenheit, with wind chills between -35 and -45 F. In these conditions, it warns, frostbite can occur in as little as 10 minutes.

GOP candidates are urging Iowans to brave the temperatures to caucus, which is an in-person process. This event traditionally has low turnout to begin with.

It remains to be seen how tonight's extreme temperatures will affect participation. But it might help to look back at temps and turnout during previous caucuses.

U.S. News & World Report did just that, analyzing the participation and temperatures for the Des Moines area from 2008 onward using data from the county, the New York Times and Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections.

Here's what they found:

• 2008 saw a low of 4 degrees in the Des Moines area, which is about 11 degrees colder than historic norms. Polk County data shows that some 22,500 Republicans — representing some 31% of the party's active registered voters — cast votes that night.
• In 2012 the low was 10 degrees, about 5 degrees colder than the norm. Polk County Republicans cast 21,838 caucus votes, which amounts to roughly 27% of its active registered GOP voters.
• 2016 saw record Republican turnout, amounting to some 38% of Polk County's active registered Republican voters. One could point to the weather — it was a relatively balmy 27 degrees — as one of several factors that made that primary distinct. Among others, it was a relatively crowded field of roughly a dozen major candidates, including Trump.
• 2020 wasn't a big year for the GOP caucus, because Trump was running as an incumbent. While the lowest temperature was 14 degrees warmer the average, only about 4,349 — or 5.6% of — Polk County Republicans voted.

Sarah Isgur, senior editor of the online conservative magazine The Dispatch, says Iowans are used to voting in this kind of weather.

"This won't be the largest turnout we've seen in the Iowa caucuses certainly, but don't expect it to tamp down turnout as much as others because this is what Iowa does," she told NPR's Morning Edition on Monday.

The caucus is voters' chance to make their voices heard, and Isgur says they take that seriously.

"Republican ... caucusgoers have been out there meeting these candidates four, five, six times, sometimes," she added. "They think it is their civic duty to inform the rest of America, 'Hey, this is what we learned from the retail politics that have been going on in this state.'"

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Bloomberg via Getty Images

Almost $300 million has been spent to try to win the Republican presidential nomination so far, two-thirds of it in the first two nominating states, Iowa and New Hampshire, according to data analyzed by NPR and compiled by the ad-tracking firm AdImpact.

Most of that money is coming from super PACs and outside groups. They have historically spent roughly as much as the campaigns do on ads, maybe a little more.

But in this election, an inordinate amount of control of the airwaves is being given to super PACs. Super PACs, unlike campaigns, can raise unlimited amounts of money — from the wealthiest Americans to corporations and labor unions.

Overall, the campaigns and groups supporting them have spent $270 million. They are aiming to win over voters by touting their candidates' strengths, but they're also going after the candidates they see as the biggest threat.

And for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former President Donald Trump, that's Nikki Haley, the former ambassador to the United Nations under Trump and former South Carolina governor.

Read more here.

John Pemble

Republican Party of Iowa officials say they’ll report Iowa caucus results in real time online on caucus night.

Chairman Jeff Kaufmann says there’s no process more transparent than these party-run presidential preference polls. Caucusgoers at more than 1,600 sites will write their presidential preference on a piece of paper and hand it in.

“The votes are counted in front of the room. Then the votes are recorded in front of the room. And each candidate can have a representative watching them counted and reported in front of the room. Then the app or the call-in is done in front of the room.”

Precinct chairs record the vote tallies on an official paper form. They’ll also report their site’s results to state party headquarters, where officials will check to make sure the numbers are in line with historical norms. Then, the results will be reported online to the public. Party officials say caucus results are unofficial until they complete their audit of paper reporting forms.

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AFP via Getty Images

Former New Hampshire Gov. John Sununu used to joke that "Iowa picks corn, New Hampshire picks presidents."

There is something to that last part: The winner of the New Hampshire primary has become the Republican presidential nominee in the last three open primaries and six of the eight primaries since 1976.

In the same period, only three of the Iowa caucus winners went on to become the presidential nominee: George W. Bush in 2000, Bob Dole in 1996 and Gerald Ford in 1976.

A recent ABC News analysis found that in the half-century since the start of the modern primary system, the presidential candidates who won Iowa's caucuses failed to win the presidency 16 times, not including uncontested races.

On the other side of the coin, it's entirely possible to lose the Iowa caucus but still become the nominee and ultimately win the presidency.

President Biden broke precedent, losing both Iowa and New Hampshire on his way to the White House. And the last three eventual GOP nominees all lost the Iowa caucuses.

The real currency of the Iowa caucuses is momentum. How candidates perform, especially compared to expectations, can determine who still sees a viable path to the nomination.

Politicos like to say there are "only three tickets out of Iowa" — a nod to the fact that in the last five decades, the eventual presidential nominee has almost always finished the caucus within the top three.

Since 1976, seven of the eight Republican nominees and eight of the last 10 Democrats were in the Iowa top three.

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IPR

As Iowa Democrats move to a mail-in system for caucuses, some wonder if the lack of in person presidential preference will leave Iowa Dems unenergized.

But Iowa Democratic Party Chair Rita Hart isn't worried.

"Democrats are energized here this year, because of the importance that they understand that we've got to get more Democrats elected," Hart said on IPR's River to River."We have experienced over the last couple cycles, a Republican party that has maintained control. And in that control, they have done some things that are very unpopular."

Hart says abortion bans, book bans and school choice vouchers are not in sync with the average Iowan.

"When we have a more balanced government, when we have a more equal representation between Democrats and Republicans, that results in better governing, it results in better policies that end up helping the people of Iowa."

Monday is the first test of the candidates running for the GOP nomination for president.

Duane Brown, an Iowa caucus captain who backs former President Donald Trump, said he expects an easy victory Monday night.

Brown says he’s backed Trump since day one and doesn’t think the bitter cold will keep supporters away. The National Weather Service expects sub-zero temperatures and wind chills as people head to precinct sites.

“I think we’ll have a big turnout. Basically, the fate of the nation hangs on this,” Brown said.

Brown lives in the northwest Iowa community of Sioux City, one of the most conservative spots in the state. He says the country can’t afford four more years of President Joe Biden, and voters want someone who can fix inflation and the southern border.

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IPR

Monday is caucus night in Iowa — the first time in the 2024 presidential campaign that Republican voters will have their say on who their party’s nominee should be.

Former President Donald Trump holds a commanding lead over Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, with Haley and DeSantis fighting it out in what could be a close race for second place in Iowa.

All three candidates have been making their final arguments and rallying supporters to turn out on what is shaping up to be the coldest caucus night on record.

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Caucus day is off to a frigid start, with Iowa facing subzero temperatures and a wind chill warning.

"Arctic cold air has settled into the area with temperatures well below zero and accompanying wind chills often in the 20s or 30s below zero, even during the day," says the National Weather Service. "This extreme Arctic air combined with breezy winds at times will continue to create dangerous conditions into Tuesday, with wind chill values as low as 35 below zero possible at times."

GOP candidates and party officials have spent much of the weekend trying to convince voters to brave the conditions for the in-person caucuses even as a series of snowstorms forced candidates to cancel campaign events or shift them online.

As Lexie Schapitl and Don Gonyea reported from Des Moines: "The forecast — brutal even by Iowa standards — could mean a depressed turnout, and has thrown a curveball into a race that has been remarkably steady for months. Former President Donald Trump has led consistently in the polls, at times by as much as 30 percentage points."

The Trump campaign — like those of his rivals — has been urging supporters not to stay home, whether due to apathy or the weather. Donald Trump Jr. made that pitch to Iowa voters in person late last week.

"I understand it's going to be -4," Trump Jr. said. "But if I can get my Florida butt back up here ... everyone can get back up there. We can get out. We can participate in the caucus process."

Trump himself canceled three of his four in-person Iowa events on Sunday because of the freezing cold and snow, The Hill reports. But, at a rally that day in Indianola, he encouraged people to get out and vote for him at any cost:

"You can’t sit home. If you’re sick as a dog, you say, ‘Darling, I gotta make it.' Even if you vote and then pass away, it’s worth it, remember," he said as the crowd laughed and cheered.

Voting officially begins at 7 p.m. CST, or 8 p.m. ET. The Iowa GOP says initial tallies can start to be reported about 45 minutes later — but the timing of announcing a winner will depend on how close the results are.

Here’s a rough schedule that the Iowa GOP has provided of what they anticipate the day to look like:

6 p.m. ET / 5 p.m. CT: Doors generally open for check-in.

6:30-7:30 p.m. ET / 5:30-6:30 p.m. CT: Most caucusgoers arrive.

8 p.m. ET / 7 p.m. CT: Call to order by temporary caucus chair.

8:05 p.m. ET / 7:05 p.m. CT: Prayer and pledge of allegiance.

8:10 p.m. ET / 7:10 p.m. CT: Permanent caucus chair election.

8:15 p.m. ET / 7:15 p.m. CT: Permanent secretary election.

8:20 p.m. ET / 7:20 p.m. CT: Presidential preference poll.

8:40 p.m. ET / 7:40 p.m. CT: Brief break to count votes/announce winner.

8:50 p.m. ET / 7:50 p.m. CT: Conduct other party business.

9:30 p.m. ET / 8:30 p.m. CT: Vote to adjourn caucus.

9:45 p.m. ET / 8:45 p.m. CT: Results will hopefully begin to appear.

Voters have watched the ads, done their research and have braved the weather to get to their precinct. Now what?

Click here to see the Iowa GOP's anticipated timeline. And here's a more detailed look at what a caucus night entails:

1. After a call to order, prayer and pledge of allegiance, the caucusgoers in the precinct will elect a permanent chair to run the caucus and then a permanent secretary to record the results.

2. A representative from each campaign makes a short speech to make their case.

3. Caucusgoers write down their candidate of choice. In past years, depending on the size of the caucus, this could have been done through a show of hands.

4. Votes are tallied in front of caucus attendees and campaign representatives.

5. Results are written on a form and submitted to party headquarters. Results are also electronically submitted to the state party.

6. Delegates are elected to attend county conventions. Delegates are assigned to candidates based on the same proportion of votes each candidate receives on caucus night.

7. Alternates and junior delegates are elected. (Junior delegates are under 18.)

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The temps are predicted to be -4 in Des Moines and -6 in Sioux City when caucus sites open.

That has to affect turnout in a process that sees a low turnout generally — only a high of 1 in 4 registered Republicans usually participate. Predicting who will show up is particularly tough to do in polling; then you throw in record-low temperatures and who knows what the impact will be?

Does the weather hurt Nikki Haley, in particular? Selzer’s poll found about half of Donald Trump’s supporters say they’re “extremely enthusiastic” to vote for him as compared to just 9% of Haley’s and about a quarter of Ron DeSantis’.

Two things are competing with each other when it comes to Trump: His quasi-incumbent status could make him immune from traditional rules of turnout, but he has also consistently drawn more support from Republicans who haven’t always participated in this process.

He lost Iowa narrowly in the 2016 GOP caucuses. Back then, almost half of the participants were first-time caucusgoers, and they broke for Trump. But relying on first-time voters can be fraught, because nothing predicts voter turnout more than past voting behavior.

Trump’s team has tried to account for that with a much better ground game than it had eight years ago, but there’s only so much a campaign can do with dangerous, snow-blanketed roads in negative-degree weather.

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Ahead of the Iowa caucuses, Donald Trump not only has a massive lead in the polls. He's also way ahead in endorsements by fellow Republicans.

Trump has the backing of well over 100 GOP governors and members of Congress — including more than 20 U.S. senators and top House members like Speaker Mike Johnson — outpacing his rivals for the party’s nomination in all of those categories. On Sunday he added more: Florida Sen. Marco Rubio and North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, though, has the backing of some key Iowans, including the state’s Republican governor, Kim Reynolds. DeSantis also won the endorsement of prominent Iowa evangelical leader Bob Vander Plaats, who has a long track record of picking winning caucus candidates and delivering support from the evangelical voters who make up a significant portion of the party base, particularly in Iowa.

Meanwhile, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley picked up a key endorsement from the next state on the primary calendar, New Hampshire, where Republican Gov. Chris Sununu has thrown his weight behind her. Sununu has said he wants the party to move beyond Trump. On Sunday, she received the backing of former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan as well.

There are 2,287 GOP delegates at stake, and a candidate needs a majority to vote for them on the floor of the Republican National Convention to be named the nominee.

That means the magic number for a Republican to become the nominee this year is 1,215. (Since Biden is an incumbent, the delegate count on the Democratic side is more of a formality.)

Iowa and New Hampshire provide a minuscule number of delegates relative to the other states — just 62 delegates combined, or 3% of the total.

They matter a lot more for candidates' momentum and media coverage — especially for those not named Trump.

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While a lot has changed about the Iowa caucuses in recent decades, one major aspect has not: They've been the country's first presidential nominating contests since 1972.

Iowa isn't demographically representative of America or even necessarily predictive of a presidential victory.

But it's important, experts say, because it goes first.

That tradition started in response to the chaotic 1968 Democratic National Convention in Chicago, which was disrupted by violent protests over the Vietnam War and racial tensions.

Iowa and the national Democratic Party looked for ways to make the presidential nominating process more inclusive in the future. Part of their approach involved spreading out the schedule in each state.

Iowa got a head start because its caucus process — which it had used to select party leaders and candidates since the 1800s — was one of the more logistically complex ones (involving precinct caucuses, district conventions and a state convention).

The change took effect in 1972, when Democrats in Iowa held their caucus first in the nation. It was moved up even earlier in the calendar because there weren't any open hotel rooms in Des Moines the week of the Iowa Democratic State Convention, according to the National Constitution Center.

The Republican party followed suit in 1976. Then-candidate Jimmy Carter's landslide victory in Iowa propelled him to the White House — and put the caucuses in the spotlight.

Seeing the benefits, Iowa has since passed a law requiring its caucuses to be held at least eight days before any other state's nominating contest, and no later than the fourth Monday in February.

New Hampshire has held the country's first primary election since 1920, though that tradition didn't develop nationwide prominence for a few more decades. The state passed a law in 1975 enshrining its status as the first-in-the-nation primary.

This year's New Hampshire primary will be held on Jan. 23 (even though the Democratic National Committee had asked state officials to not schedule it ahead of South Carolina's, which is set for Feb. 3).

Correction 4:14 pm ET: An earlier version of this post mistakenly summarized the DNC's request to New Hampshire officials.

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These are the issues that Iowa Republicans say are "extremely important to them," according to a November Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom Iowa Poll: the economy, immigration and border security, government spending and the deficit, the Israel-Hamas war and relations with China.

Where do each of the Republican candidates stand on the issues that matter most to voters?

Whether you're looking for a quick refresher or a more comprehensive deep dive, NPR's politics team has you covered. Check out their "tracking the issues" series to learn more about where the candidates stand on:

• Climate change
• Abortion
• Israel, Ukraine and China
• Jan. 6, democracy and voting issues
• Immigration
• The economy
• Donald Trump

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The latest polls show Trump with a sizable lead in Iowa (an estimated 51.3%, as of late last week), followed by Haley, DeSantis close behind and Ramaswamy trailing even further.

But polls are only a snapshot of a moment, and it's not unusual for things to change in the days leading up to an election.

In 2016, for example, 45% of Iowa voters said they made up their minds in the last week — almost 1 in 5 said they made their choice on the day of the caucuses.

In New Hampshire, it was even higher — a majority (53%) said they made up their minds during the week before with a quarter saying they decided day-of.

Trump’s quasi-incumbent status could make this year different.

In Iowa, for example, far more Trump backers say they won’t change their minds, compared to his rivals.

Trump is leading by a historically wide margin in Iowa, but many of his supporters say they have never participated in a caucus before. In 2016, 45% of Iowa GOP caucusgoers were first-time caucusgoers, and broke for Trump, though he came up just short against Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas.

One of the best indicators of whether someone will vote is their past voting record. So whether or not Trump's supporters show up to caucus remains something of a wild card.

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Iowans who are at least 18 years old, and those who will turn 18 by Nov. 5, can participate in today's caucuses.

Only Iowa residents who are registered Republicans can participate, and only in their designated home precincts — but Iowans can register to vote or change their party today at their caucus site with a valid form of ID and proof of address.

Democrats will use "presidential preference cards" to choose their party’s presidential nominee through mail-in voting. Iowans have until Feb. 19 to request a preference card, and the party will start to mail those out on Jan. 12.

Here's what to know if you're participating in the caucuses, courtesy of Iowa Public Radio:

• Need to register to vote? You can do that online.
• If you’re not registered or aren't sure if you’re registered to vote, you can check your status online, too.
• You'll need to find out what precinct you’re in, and from there, you can find the location of your caucus site. Once you know your precinct, you can find your caucus site here if you’re a Republican and here if you're a Democrat.
• The Iowa GOP recommends arriving well before 7 p.m. to participate in the Republican caucuses. Remember to bring a valid form of ID.

Read Iowa Public Radio's full guide here.

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Republican presidential hopeful Nikki Haley expressed sadness Sunday at the news of the death of an Iowa principal injured earlier this month in a school shooting.

Haley called Perry High School principal Dan Marburger a “hero” who’d “saved lives” during the shooting in a city that Haley noted was “just down the road” from Adel, where she was campaigning ahead of Monday’s Iowa caucuses.

Law enforcement officials said Marburger was shot while trying to protect students.

Before beginning her normal stump speech, Haley noted Marburger’s death and related a story about a deadly school shooting in South Carolina during her time as governor. Without mentioning gun safety, she called on Americans to acknowledge “the cancer that is mental health in America” and asked attendees to pray for the Perry community.

Haley also thanked the teachers and first responders who helped students in Perry after the shooting on Jan. 4.

“It’s such a reminder, I hope, for this community, this state and this country, the good people that came out … the way they took care of those kids,” Haley said.

In addition to Marburger, a sixth-grader died in the shooting and six others were injured. The 17-year-old shooter died after apparently turning the gun on himself.

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IPR

The Iowa caucuses return to kick off the presidential primary season tonight, but not in the same way as before. After the catastrophic night that played out for Iowa Democrats in 2020, all eyes are now on Republicans as they uphold Iowa's first-in-the-nation status.

Here’s some background on the Iowa caucuses — what they are, why they matter, how they’ve changed for the 2024 race and how Iowans can participate.

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During former President Donald Trump's 1,462 days in office, his disapproval rating was above 50% in 1,441 of them, according to FiveThirtyEight’s average of the polls.

That’s 98.6% of his presidency. Trump's approval rating ranged between 37% and 46%, remarkably consistent and remarkably unpopular. That unpopularity continued into his post-presidency. After the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection, Trump’s unfavorability rating hit a high of 58%. It currently stands at 52%, but has had very little variability.

Trump’s unfavorability rating has been in the mid-50s since April 2021 as views settled back after Jan. 6.

Realize what that means: More than half the country dislikes Trump and has disliked him for a very long time.

And yet … Trump is very popular with Republicans — 78% of Republicans on average say they have a favorable rating of him, and there has been almost no variability on this. He hit a low of 75%, within the margin of error, in December 2022 after the midterm elections, when Republican candidates running in Trump's image underperformed. He hit a high of 84% in September 2021.

In other words, views of Trump — unsurprisingly — are very locked in.

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The term "Iowa caucus" may conjure up mental images of people gathering in school gymnasiums, forming and reforming groups based on their presidential preferences.

That voting method was a fixture of the Democratic caucus for the last five decades, but won't be used anymore. The party has drastically reformed its caucus process after the failures of 2020.

Iowa Democrats will still hold party caucuses today, but they won't involve voting for the president.

Instead, the in-person precinct caucuses (which also start at 7 p.m. local time) will meet to conduct what state Democrats call "traditional party business."

"We will elect unbound delegates and alternate delegates to county conventions, elect county central committee members and discuss platform resolutions that can be shared at county conventions," they said.

Democrats will cast their vote by mail using a presidential preference card, which they can request by mail or online through Feb. 19.

The options on the ballot? President Biden, Minnesota Rep. Dean Phillips, author Marianne Williamson and "uncommitted."

Cards are being mailed out as of Friday, and results will be released on March 5 (16 states or territories will vote that same day, known as Super Tuesday).

It's a significant change in the process and a demotion in the calendar. The reform is a direct result of the chaotic Democratic caucus of 2020, which failed to produce a clear winner. The smartphone app that the party purchased for precincts to report their winners malfunctioned, as did a backup hotline system.

Even before that debacle, however, a growing chorus of critics had been casting doubt on Iowa's first-in-the-nation status, arguing that its overwhelmingly white population isn't reflective of the U.S. or the growing diversity of the Democratic Party.

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It's set to be the coldest Iowa caucus on record.

The state is out of a blizzard warning that gripped pretty much all of Iowa over a few days, but now bitter cold has settled in. By the time the in-person Republican caucuses begin at 7 p.m. local time, temperatures are expected to be below zero with wind chills way below zero. It's dangerous cold.

The weather has affected campaigning, with events canceled or moved online instead. And it's likely to affect caucus night turnout, though it's unclear who might benefit.

The candidates have made the cold part of their messaging in the race's final stretch.

Here's Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis speaking to cheering volunteers at the Iowa headquarters of a super PAC supporting him: “They can throw a blizzard at us and we are going to fight! They can throw wind chill at us and we are going to fight!"

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Here are the basics about the process, where they will happen and when they start:

What time do the caucuses take place?

They begin at 7 p.m. CT (8 p.m. ET) and will last roughly an hour. Caucusgoers write down their candidate of choice. In past years, depending on the size of the caucus, this could have been done through a show of hands. Votes are then tallied in front of caucus attendees and campaign representatives to be submitted to the state party.

Who can vote?

Only registered Republicans can vote, but few of them do. The GOP turnout record is 186,000, set in 2016. That's only about 25% of total registered Republicans in the state. But the sub-zero temperatures expected tonight could greatly affect the numbers. The freezing temperatures follow multiple snowstorms that blew through the state recently.

Where do the caucuses happen?

They'll take place in 1,657 precinct locations across all 99 counties in the state, in spaces including libraries, churches and school gymnasiums.

The caucuses will determine how 40 delegates are selected for the party's national convention later this summer. Iowa will receive 2% of the total party delegates, and those delegates will be allocated proportionally.

What about Iowa Democrats?

Democrats will also be caucusing, but they won't cast votes for president at them this year. Instead, they'll send mail-in ballots over the next few weeks, which the party will tally up by March 5 — releasing the state's primary results well after South Carolina's race in February. The reshuffling in the Democratic National Convention nominating calendar comes after calls for a state that is more demographically representative of the country to go first.

Plus, the race won't be as competitive since there aren't any major challenges to President Biden's bid for reelection.

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Republicans in the Hawkeye State convene Monday on a potentiallyrecord-breaking chilly night — which will likely affect turnout — to commence the presidential contest for 2024.

The caucuses are the first chance for Republican voters to weigh in on who they want to be their nominee. It will be the first test of Donald Trump's hold on the GOP base. He leads overwhelmingly in polls for Iowa and nationally, as he faces 91 criminal and civil felony charges — including for actions he took as president related to the Jan. 6 insurrection.

The stakes are high. Here's what to watch out for:

• The margin of victory: Trump has been leading in the polls by historic margins in Iowa, currently an average of 34 points. The largest win ever in the GOP Iowa caucuses was 12.8 points. What will be Trump's margin of victory, if he wins? 

• The order of finish: Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has been in second place for the entirety of this campaign, but former Trump U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley has now crept up past DeSantis narrowly, within the margin of error. That correlates with Haley and groups supporting her bypassing DeSantis and allies in their ad spending in Iowa. DeSantis needs to finish second and outperform where he's been polling to have a rationale to continue his campaign.

• The weather: With a forecast set for a sub-zero high, the inclement weather will likely greatly affect turnout. Trump is relying on first-time caucusgoers, as he did in 2016 when he lost Iowa narrowly. He has a much better ground game in Iowa this time around, but there's only so much you can do in these kinds of conditions.