Democrats running for U.S. House seats across the country see abortion as a key issue that could help them retake the majority from Republicans. Iowa’s 3rd Congressional District, which includes the Des Moines metro and parts of southern Iowa, is currently one of 25 House races across the country listed as a “toss-up.”
Abortion was also a key issue in the 2022 race because the U.S. Supreme Court had just announced the Dobbs decision which eliminated federal abortion rights protections. However, with more laws in place restricting the procedure at the state level, abortion is “becoming very real” for voters this year, according to Grand View University Political Science Professor Bryan McQuide.
The Republicans are appealing to the evangelical base, which supported the ban, and the ability of the state to ban abortion.Bryan McQuide, political science professor
“When we had the 2022 races at that point, we didn't know what the states were going to do with the decision yet,” said McQuide, who studies American political institutions and interest group lobbying. “At that time, it was hypothetical, like, 'Well, the state could pass a ban.' Now we know.”
This year, ads and money from outside groups are making sometimes misleading claims about candidate stances on abortion. And the 3rd District race — with incumbent Republican Rep. Zach Nunn facing Democratic challenger Lanon Baccam — has seen high amounts of national spending. According to the website OpenSecrets, the race has garnered more than $13 million in outside spending alone, exceeding outside spending in all other three congressional races combined. Outside spending includes money spent by groups or individuals independently of a candidate’s campaign committee.
“The candidates don't have control over these outside ads,” McQuide said. “The third-party ads are the most negative and the most hard-hitting. But the reason these national campaigns are spending so much money in our 3rd District is because it's so competitive.”
Voters in the 3rd District might be familiar with the swinging nature of the U.S. House seat. Ten years ago, it was held by a Republican before turning Democratic when Cindy Axne unseated the incumbent David Young. Four years later, in 2022, Nunn won by less than a percentage point in the newly redrawn district.
Targeting abortion in this year’s election can also help candidates strategically build support with their party’s core bases.
“The Republicans are appealing to the evangelical base, which supported the ban, and the ability of the state to ban abortion,” McQuide said. “But the Democrats are also appealing to women, saying, ‘Hey, you know this is your right. The Republicans are trying to take away your right. We're going to reverse things at the federal level.’”
Ads in heavy rotation this year claim Rep. Nunn supports a federal abortion ban without exceptions, often playing a segment from the 2022 GOP primary debate where moderator Dave Price asked the candidates whether they believe abortion should be illegal in the U.S., and added a clarifying “no exceptions” to the question. In the clip, Nunn raises, then drops, then raises his hand again.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, which works nationally to elect Democrats to the U.S. House, has spent at least $100,000 this election on ads featuring the clip, according to the Google Ads Transparency Center.
“Let me be crystal clear where I stand and have stood,” Nunn said in the 3rd District debate this year hosted by KCCI-TV. “I am pro life. I have voted for exceptions for rape, incest and certainly for the health of the mother. I believe strongly that we should not have a federal abortion ban and take that away from Iowans.”
In the debate with Democrat Cindy Axne two years ago, Nunn said abortion should be left up to the states, falling in line with former President Donald Trump’s stance. Earlier this month, Trump said on social media he would veto a federal abortion ban if he were president, saying it should be left up to the states.
Nunn voted for a bill in 2018 as a member of the Iowa Statehouse that mirrored the state's current law banning abortions as early as six weeks with exceptions for rape, incest and medical emergencies.
There is only one person on this stage right now who will stand up for women's rights — and that is me.Democrat Lanon Baccam
Ads sponsored by Nunn’s campaign this year claim Baccam “supports taxpayer funded abortions up until the moment of birth.” This is similar to his claims in 2022 that Axne would allow abortions “up until the day of birth.” In this year’s debate, moderator Jodi Long pressed Baccam on whether he thinks abortion should be illegal at any point in a woman’s pregnancy. Baccam defaulted to Roe v. Wade.
“Iowans have had Roe as a law of the land for almost 50 years,” Baccam said. “That is the space in which they are comfortable. There is only one person on this stage right now who will stand up for women's rights — and that is me”
Throughout his campaign, and during the debate, Baccam has championed the Women’s Health Protection Act, which would protect access to abortions before what is called “viability,” generally presumed to be around 24 weeks. The U.S Senate symbolically voted on a version of the bill in 2022 after a leaked Supreme Court draft opinion showed the court would likely overturn Roe v. Wade.
While abortion might be a focal point in the 3rd District race, other critical issues will also determine the outcome of the election. The weight ads about abortion carry with voters this election will be determined by how it stacks up with those other issues.
“Abortion is a major issue, but it's not the only issue,” McQuide said. “One of the things to keep in mind is that there's other major issues in this race…but inflation, immigration, abortion, confidence in the federal government — those are all major issues.”
