Early projections from national media outlets suggest Iowa Congressman Rod Blum may be one of the most vulnerable representatives in the country. Four Democrats want to unseat the two-term Republican during this year’s midterms. In this key toss-up race, some voters are saying electability is more important than policy.
On a recent Friday night in Waterloo, voters crowded in to a small auditorium to hear from the four Democrats challenging Republican Congressman Rod Blum in Iowa's 1st Congressional District.
State Representative Abby Finkenaur of Dubuque is touting her family’s organized labor background. Thomas Heckroth from Cedar Falls worked for former U.S. Senator Tom Harkin and in President Obama’s labor department, and as a business executive. George Ramsey is an Army veteran with law enforcement experience who now lives in Cedar Rapids. Also from the city is aerospace engineer Courtney Rowe, who served in the Air Force Reserves.
It’s a relatively open race for this northeastern Iowa district, and some voters are still in the process of making up their minds.
Sherry Kiskunas is a Waterloo resident and a self-described proud Democrat. She wants her party back in power. But Kiskunas wanted to know what expanding social services would cost her.
“The only thing in my mind was taxes. So I just threw that out there," she said.
Kiskunas said she wanted to hear proactive plans from the candidates, not just their complaints about those in power now.
"Trump’s gone, imagine what you’re going to do. Look forward! What are you going to do? Don’t look backward,” she said.
Janesville Independent Lisa Nelson is worried about healthcare. She works with a long-term care facility and says the federal government isn’t adequately paying providers to care for the elderly. She says higher Medicare reimbursement rates are even more important for some rural facilities.
"I'm always concerned about Independents. Especially their numbers. Cause that means somebody is going to lose out." - Edward Loggins, Democrat
“It’s disconcerting. Especially knowing there are other facilities in other communities that are struggling even more,” Nelson said.
Meanwhile, Waterloo Democrat Edward Loggins wanted the candidates to address larger issues of voting rights and how presidential races are decided.
“What benefit is the Electoral College if it’s going to overrule 3, 4, 5 million votes?” Loggins asked.
But Loggins says he’s really worried about independent voters, like Nelson.
“I’m always concerned about Independents. Especially their numbers. 'Cause that means somebody is going to lose out,” Loggins said.
And he has good reason to be worried. In this district, non-party affiliated voters, or NPAs, outnumber Democrats and Republicans. That unpredictability is part of what makes this race is so competitive.
And the candidates are addressing this head-on, making the case for why they can win over Independents, NPAs, even Republicans. Because Democrats may not be able to flip this district on their own.
"At this point it's a matter of who do I think has the best likelihood of taking this seat back." - Lisa Nelson, Independent
The candidates want to provide universal healthcare coverage, to raise the minimum wage and cut higher education costs, and to represent working people they say Washington has forgotten. They generally agree on the issues, with different ideas about how to get it all done.
But some voters say policies alone aren’t going to make the biggest difference; it’s who can beat Congressman Rod Blum. Independent Lisa Nelson said that's the bottom line for her.
"At this point it’s a matter of who do I think has the best likelihood of taking this seat back,” Nelson said. “That’s what I’ll be pondering between now and the 5th of June, is what is it that’s going to get the most people out voting on that side of the ticket. And I’m not sure what that is yet.”
University of Northern Iowa political scientist Chris Larimer says for many voters, it comes down to likeability.
"If [voters] like a candidate, they tend to assume that that particular, individual candidate shares his or her policy views." - Chris Larimer, UNI Political Scientist
“Voters tend to look at a candidate. If they like a candidate, they tend to assume that that particular, individual candidate shares his or her policy views," Larimer said. "It’s not really as though you are evaluating each candidate based on policy positions and doing some sort of cost-benefit analysis.”
National media outlets say if Democrats can win back the House of Representatives, it’ll be by flipping seats like Rod Blum’s. The Washington Post, the Cook Political Report and Roll Call all say Iowa’s 1st Congressional District is one of the most likely to go blue.
But there are no guarantees. Blum has outperformed expectations before, winning a greater percentage of voters in 2016than in 2014. Larimer says a lot depends on who can get people out the door and into the voting booth.
“We know that turnout tends to drop in a midterm election year. So for the Democrats, the challenge is finding a candidate that’s going to raise voter enthusiasm so they can raise turnout among Democrats,” Larimer said.
However the primary goes, Democrat Edward Loggins says the winner needs to be ready for a fight in November.
“Rod Blum is not coming playing games. He’s coming with everything he has!” Loggins said. "So whoever runs against him seriously better be ready, because he’s not going to be playing when he comes.”
The last day to request an absentee ballot is Mary 25th. Election Day is June 5th. More information about voting in the primary is available here.
