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The Uncertain Science Of Election Polling

Missouri Democratic congressional candidate Cori Bush casts her ballot on August 4, 2020 at Gambrinus Hall in St Louis, Missouri. (Michael Thomas/Getty Images)
Missouri Democratic congressional candidate Cori Bush casts her ballot on August 4, 2020 at Gambrinus Hall in St Louis, Missouri. (Michael Thomas/Getty Images)

With the presidential election less than three months away, people are fixated on polls. Biden’s up, Trump is down – but is that really true? We discuss America’s polling obsession.   

Guests

Elliott Morris, data journalist for The Economist. ( @gelliottmorris)

Nathan Gonzales, editor and publisher of Inside Elections, which provides nonpartisan campaign analysis. Political analyst for CNN and RollCall. ( @nathanlgonzales)

Celinda Lake, longtime Democratic pollster and expert on women voters. Founder and president of Lake Research Partners, a political strategy research firm. Author of “ What Women Really Want.” ( @celindalake)

Jack Beatty, On Point news analyst. ( @JackBeattyNPR)

From The Reading List

Pew Research Center: “ Key things to know about election polling in the United States” — “A robust public polling industry is a marker of a free society. It’s a testament to the ability of organizations outside the government to gather and publish information about the well-being of the public and citizens’ views on major issues.”

The Economist: “ Forecasting the US elections” — “Our model is updated every day and combines state and national polls with economic indicators to predict a range of outcomes.”

The Upshot: “ Are the Polls Missing Republican Voters?” — “With polls showing Joe Biden holding a commanding lead, one question keeps popping up: Are these polls missing Trump voters?”

Bloomberg: “ Political Pollsters Find People Stuck at Home Are Happy to Talk” — “Democratic pollster Celinda Lake is used to people hanging up on her after giving all manner of excuses.”

Economist Radio: “ Modelled citizens—how useful is polling in predicting the result of the US presidential election?” — “Forecasters put Hillary Clinton’s chance of winning at 70 percent or more on the eve of the election in 2016.”

Roll Call: “ 6 things that will never be the same after the 2020 elections” — “It’s still too early to declare the final results of the 2020 elections, but there are at least a few things that we know will never be the same again, even before we get to November.”

New York Times: “ A 2016 Review: Why Key State Polls Were Wrong About Trump” — “Nearly seven months after the presidential election, pollsters are still trying to answer a question that has rattled trust in their profession: Why did pre-election polls show Hillary Clinton leading Donald J. Trump in the battleground states that decided the presidency?”

Quartz: “ Can we trust the 2020 US presidential polls?” — “The US presidential election is three months away, and the polls and forecasts are rolling in.”

This article was originally published on WBUR.org.

Copyright 2020 NPR. To see more, visit https://www.npr.org.

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